| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析黄河上游唐乃亥流域年最大洪峰流量序列并对年最大洪峰流量进行预测，为内蒙古河段的防洪减淤提供参考。【方法】借鉴集合预报的思路，依据模糊数学理论和马尔科夫随机过程理论，建立黄河上游唐乃亥流域58年来年最大洪峰序列的综合预估模型，对唐乃亥流域未来几年的洪水情势进行了预估，以冲刷内蒙古河段所需流量对应的唐乃亥站流量为目标流量，分析其发生的可能性。【结果】唐乃亥站未来5年的洪水将进入中偏大的状态，年最大洪洪峰流量在2017年达到最大，量级为3 520 m3/s，但出现概率仅为33%；唐乃亥站在未来几年超过目标流量洪水出现的概率为33%。【结论】未来5年中，依靠上游唐乃亥的天然来水解决内蒙古河段淤积问题的可能性较小。 |
| 关键词: 黄河 内蒙古河段 洪水变化趋势 综合预估 概率预测 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（“973”计划）项目（2011CB403305） |
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| Predicting recent flood situation in upstream of the Yellow River |
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LIU Mei,LIU Mei,LI Ziwen,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The annual maximum flood peak sequence of Tangnaihai basin in upstream of the Yellow River was analysed and its peak discharge was predicted to provide reference for flood prevention and sedimentation reduction in Inner Mongolia reach.【Method】Learning from ensemble forecast,this paper set up a comprehensive forecast model based on the Fuzzy Mathematic Theory and the Markov Stochastic Process with 58 years annual maximum peak discharge sequence of Tangnaihai basin in upstream of the Yellow River.The flow of Tangnaihai basin flushing the Inner Mongolia River was set as target flow,and its occurrence was predicted.【Result】The magnitude of the flood of Tangnaihai basin in the next five years would be medium to large.The peak of 3 520 m3/s in 2017 had the occurrence of 33%.The appearance probability of flood larger than typical flow in Tangnaihai was 33% in the next few years.【Conclusion】It is less likely to solve the silting problem in Inner Mongolia relying on the natural water of Tangnaihai basin. |
| Key words: Yellow River Inner Mongolia reach flood trend comprehensive forecast probability forecast |
