| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析引调水工程水源地水量水质联合风险，为引调水工程的顺利建设提供科学依据。【方法】利用水质综合指数评价法对水质进行评价，分别利用水质综合指数和污染最为严重的指标与水量数据进行Copula水量水质联合分布函数的构建，并以引沁入汾工程为例对引调水工程水量水质联合风险进行研究。【结果】引沁入汾工程水源地水质状况良好，总体均能达到水质功能区Ⅳ类水要求；通过水量与水质综合指数计算得到的联合风险可以看出：就整个调水时期而言，有利于调水的概率为99.29%，不利于调水的概率为2.01%；通过水量与污染最为严重的水质指标TN计算得到的联合风险可以看出：就整个调水时期而言，有利于调水的概率为32.16%，不利于调水的概率为69.16%。【结论】引沁入汾工程水源地适合作为该工程的取水源地，但以后需加强对TN的控制和治理。 |
| 关键词: 引沁入汾工程 水质综合指数评价法 Copula函数 水量水质联合风险 |
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| 基金项目:西安理工大学 西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地 |
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| Joint risk of water quantity and quality in water sources of water diversion project |
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XU Cong,FENG Minquan
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This paper studied the joint risk of water quantity and quality in water sources of water diversion project to provide scientific basis for successful construction of water diversion project.【Method】Water quality was evaluated by synthetic index method.Water quantity data was used together with water quality synthetic index and the most serious pollution indicator to build the Copula joint distribution function.Then,the joint risk of water quantity and quality was investigated using the water diversion project from Qin River to Fen River as an example.【Result】The water sources of water diversion project from Qin River to Fen River have good water quality,and the overall water quality reaches ribbon Class Ⅳ water requirements.From the joint risk calculated by water quality and quantity synthetic index,the probability that is conducive to diversion is 99.29%,and the probability that is not conducive to diversion is 2.01% during the entire water diversion period.From the joint risk of water contamination by the most serious water quality indicator TN,the probability that is conducive to diversion is 32.16% and the probability that is not conducive to diversion is 69.16%.【Conclusion】The water sources of water diversion project from Qin River to Fen River is suitable and the control and governance of TN should be strengthened in future. |
| Key words: water diversion project from Qin River to Fen River synthetic index method for water quality assessment Copula function joint risk of water quantity and quality |
