| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 运用风险评价手段，对我国农村基于秸秆生物质资源的户用沼气进行区域风险评价，为户用沼气的合理布局提供科学依据。【方法】 在综合分析产业发展风险因子的基础上，运用层次分析法和多目标线性加权函数法，从原料供应、温度保障、社会经济、制度技术4个风险层面，共选取了秸秆资源总量、秸秆产量平均增长率、平均气温、农户人均年收入、15岁以上人口文盲率和制度技术进步水平等6个指标，建立了基于秸秆生物质资源的中国户用沼气区域风险评价指标体系和评价模型。【结果】 我国各省区在各个风险层面差异较大，综合风险较高的是青海、甘肃、西藏、宁夏、新疆等农业生产水平落后的省份及北京、天津、上海、浙江等东部经济发达省份；综合风险较小的是河南、山东、四川、河北、湖南、广西、湖北、吉林、江苏、辽宁等传统农业省份；其他省份发展农村户用沼气的风险水平一般。【结论】 按照一定的分级区划标准制备的全国户用沼气风险图，可以为相关决策部门提供较为科学和直观的理论指导。 |
| 关键词: 生物质能 秸秆 户用沼气 区域风险评价 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“中国农村户用沼气区域适应性评价”（30700482） |
|
| Research on the regional risk of household biogas in rural areas of China based on crop straw resources |
|
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The purpose of this research is to provide guidelines to the reasonable distribution of household biogas in rural areas of China.【Method】 Based on the comprehensive analysis of risky factors of household biogas in China,six evaluation indexes of actual crop straw resource amount,annual increase rate of crop straw resource,average annual temperature,per capital income of rural household,illiteracy rate of population above 15 and biomass concentration rate,which belong to four risk levels including resource supply risk,temperature guarantee risk,social and economic risk and support & technology risk,were selected to construct the index system and evaluation model.【Result】 The results indicated that there was a great regional risk difference of household biogas in rural areas of China,traditional agricultural regions such as Henan,Shandong,Sichuan,Hebei and Hunan were much more suitable for household biogas development than that in Qinghai,Beijing,Gansu,Tibet and Shanghai,which commonly had a very low crop straw resources supply level.【Conclusion】 According to certain dividing standards,the risk map was made in order to intuitively reflect the regional risk of household biogas and to provide some theoretical guidelines for the decision making apartments. |
| Key words: biomass energy crop straw resources household biogas regional risk evaluation |
