| 摘要: |
| 对内蒙古自治区1949～2005年和未来25年(2005～2030年)的人口、耕地面积和耕地生产率进行了分析。结果表明,未来25年,在现有耕地面积(549万hm2)和生产率(2 287.4 kg/hm2)不变的情况下,全区可养活比预测还多26.0～39.7万人;当粮食需求量为400～500 kg/(人·a)时,可退耕57.0～182.0 hm2的耕地。由此可知,内蒙古自治区耕地人口承载能力还有一定的发展空间,“退耕还林(草)”生态环境建设对策切实可行。 |
| 关键词: 耕地 人口承载能力 人口-土地关系平衡模型 内蒙古自治区 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重大基础预研项目（2005CCAD5300） |
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| Analysis on the current situation and developing tendency of farmland and population carrying capacity of Inner mongolia |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the analysis and prediction of the changes in population, farmland area and productivity during 1949-2005 and the future 25 years (2005-2030) in lnner Mongolia,the paper draws the conclusion that in the future 25 years,the autonomous region can feed 2.6×105-3.97×105 more people than predicted if the farmland productivity and present farmland keep unchangeable,and when food needed is 400-500 kg (person·a),the farmland area of 57.0-182.0 hm2can be returned to vegetation of forests and grassland. According to the result above, the counter measures of ecological environment construction through“cropland back into forests and grassland”in lnner Mongolia,are really feasible. |
| Key words: farmland,population carrying capacity,model of population and land balance,Inner Mongolia |
