| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预测气候变化背景下五爪金龙（Ipomoea cairica）在中国的潜在适生区，从而为预防该物种入侵提供理论依据。【方法】利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）结合五爪金龙的分布点信息（1 695条数据）和气候数据（包括19个生物气候因子）,分别预测其在当前和未来气候下的潜在适生区范围。为了预测五爪金龙在3个未来年代（2030s、2050s和2080s）的潜在适生区，采用7种大气环流模型（GCM）和4种二氧化碳排放代表性浓度路径（RCP）组合下的未来气候数据，分别为每个年代建立了28个生态位模型（ENMs），并计算其均值模型。【结果】MaxEnt模型的AUC值为0.943，表明模型预测精度较高。模型预测结果显示，五爪金龙的极高适生区主要集中在广西、广东、福建、台湾4个省（自治区），高度适生区主要在云南南部、海南、广西北部、福建北部、广东北部及台湾部分地区，这也正是该种目前在中国危害最严重的地区。气候变化背景下，其未来在华中和华北的适生区将会逐步缩减，湖南、江西、浙江和四川等省份的局部地区将会成为其新拓展的适生区范围。总体而言，至21世纪末，其在中国的适生区范围呈缩减态势，其适生区北界将会向南移动。在当前气候条件下，影响五爪金龙潜在适生区的主要环境因子为温度，包括年均温、温度季节变化方差、最冷月最低温度、年气温变化范围、最干季度平均温度和最冷季节平均温度。【结论】气候变化可能在一定程度上抑制五爪金龙在中国的入侵扩散，也可能导致未来中国中部地区该种的入侵风险增加。 |
| 关键词: 五爪金龙 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 生物入侵 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目（31600445）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（31570425，11671243）；陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2016JQ3009)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(GK201703036)；有害生物控制与资源利用国家重点实验室（中山大学）开放课题(SKLBC14KF04) |
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| Potential distribution of Ipomoea cairica in China under climate change |
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GONG Yanyan,JIA Xiaoxia,ZHU Qianqian,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The objective of this study was to predict the potential distribution areas of Ipomoea cairica in China under climate change,which would provide guidance for preventing I.cairica invasion.【Method】Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) combined with worldwide occurrence data (1 695 records) and climate factors (19 biological variables) was used to predict the potential distribution areas of I.cairica in China.Seven general circulation models (GCM) and 4 scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) of CO2 emission were used for 28 ecological niche models (ENMs) for three eras (2030s,2050s and 2080s).【Result】The MaxEnt model obtained high accuracy with the AUC of 0.943.The MaxEnt model predicted that extremely high suitable areas for I.cairica mainly located in Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian and Taiwan,and high suitable areas mainly located in South Yunnan,Hainan,North Guangxi,North Fujian,North Guangdong and partial Taiwan.Its potential suitable area was larger than its current distribution in China.Under climate change,its suitable area in China tended to decrease in future (2030s,2050s and 2080s).In general,its suitable area in Central and North China would disappear but expend in Hunan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang and Sichuan.Under the current climate,the distribution of I.cairica was mainly influenced by temperature factors,including annual mean temperature,temperature seasonality,minimum temperature of coldest month,temperature annual range,mean temperature of driest quarter,and mean temperature of coldest quarter.【Conclusion】Climate change would inhibit the expansion of I.cairica in China but increase the invasion potential in Central China. |
| Key words: Ipomoea cairica MaxEnt model potential distribution biological invasion |
