| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析北洛河流域未来径流变化趋势，为该流域水资源管理与可持续利用提供理论依据。【方法】基于美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）再分析资料和北洛河流域7个气象站的历史降水及蒸发资料，采用逐步回归法建立统计降尺度模型，在BCC-CSM1.1的2种不同情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下，模拟未来时段的降水、蒸发情况，结合TOPMODEL得出未来的模拟径流。【结果】2种情景下，未来4个时期年平均降水均高于基准期值（除了RCP8.5情景下的2030s），年平均蒸发量均高于基准期值（除了RCP4.5情景下的2040s）；除了RCP4.5情景下2015－2020年的冬季径流平均值（0.98亿m3）略低于基准期值（1.06亿m3）外，2种情景下夏、秋季及RCP8.5情景下冬季的径流平均值均高于基准期值，最大值均出现在秋季。【结论】将统计降尺度方法和TOPMODEL结合起来可以很好地分析未来径流的变化情况。 |
| 关键词: 北洛河流域 径流变化 TOPMODEL模型 降尺度 气候变化 BCC-CSM1.1 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大项目（51190093）；国家自然科学基金项目（51179148,51179149）；陕西省重点实验室项目（13JS069）；水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目（2012490511） |
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| Future runoff variation of Beiluo River Watershed |
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ZHANG Hongxue,CHANG Jianxia,ZHANG Lianpeng
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study analyzed the tendency of runoff variation of Beiluo River basin in future to provide theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization and management of water resources in this watershed.【Method】Based on the NCEP reanalysis data from USA National Center for environmental prediction and historical precipitation and evaporation data at 7 weather stations of Beiluo River watershed,a statistical downscaling model was established using stepwise regression method to simulate future precipitation and evaporation under two different scenarios of BCC-CSM1.1 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and predict future runoff in combination with TOPMODEL.【Result】In the two scenarios,the mean annual precipitations of the four periods in future were higher than that of baseline period except for RCP8.5 in 2030s,and the mean annual evaporations were also higher except for RCP4.5 in 2040s.The mean runoffs in summer and autumn in the two scenarios and the mean runoff in winter in RCP8.5 were higher than that of the baseline period with the exception that mean winter runoff during 2015 to 2020 (0.98×108 m3) was slightly lower than that of baseline period (1.06×108 m3).All maximum values appeared in autumn.【Conclusion】Combination of TOPMODEL and downscaling model well simulated the future runoff variation. |
| Key words: Beiluo River Watershed runoff variation TOPMODEL statistical downscaling climate variation BCC-CSM1.1 |
