| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析渭河平原旱涝灾害的演变特征及趋势，为区域防灾减灾措施的制定提供依据。【方法】基于旱涝灾害史料，重建渭河平原2 205年(BC193-AD2012年)的旱涝灾害等级序列，通过绘制旱涝灾害等级图谱，统计不同时间段灾害的分布及持续性规律，并利用累积距平法、滑动T检验法结合小波分析法探究旱涝灾害的阶段性和周期性特征。【结果】2 205年内渭河平原共有796年发生了各类洪涝灾害，旱灾发生总频次为480年,高于涝灾的316年，且旱涝交替现象明显，但近200年旱灾的发生频率有所下降，涝灾则呈上升趋势；2 205年中连旱灾害发生总频率高于连涝灾害，但连涝灾害的发生频率在近300年有增强趋势；旱涝灾害序列可划分为2个干旱期和2个洪涝期，且干旱期的最长持续时间为997年，远高于洪涝期的484年；旱涝灾害在全时间尺度上，存在24年、67～76年、92年和178～198年的显著周期。【结论】渭河平原2 205年的历史中，旱涝灾害发生频繁，且旱涝灾害序列具有明显的阶段性和周期性。 |
| 关键词: 旱涝灾害 灾害发生规律 灾害演变特征 渭河平原 |
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| 基金项目:中国工程院重大咨询项目“我国旱涝事件集合应对战略研究”（2012-ZD-13）；国家自然科学基金项目“支持最严格水资源管理业务应用的服务模式研究与实现”（51209170）；陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目“关中地区旱涝灾害演变特征及多事件相关性分析”（2016JQ5061） |
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| Occurrence regularity and evolution characteristics of droughts and floods in Weihe plain during past 2 205 years |
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ZHU Jiwei,XU Xiaoyu,LIU Jiahong,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study analyzed the evolution feature and tendency of droughts and floods in Weihe plain to provide basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation.【Method】Based on historical materials,the grade sequence of droughts and floods in Weihe plain during past 2 205 years (BC193-AD2012) was reconstructed.By drawing sequence map of droughts and floods,the occurrence frequency and sustainability were statistically analyzed.Accumulative departure method,T-test method and wavelet analysis method were also used to analyze the periodic features of droughts and floods.【Result】There were a total of 796 years with droughts and floods in Weihe plain during the past 2 205 years.Draughts (480) were more frequent than floods (316) and they occurred alternatively.There were a decreasing tendency in the occurrence frequency of droughts and a increasing tendency of floods in recent 200 years.The occurrence frequency of continuous droughts was higher than that of continuous floods,although the latter had an increasing trend in recent 300 years.The sequence was divided into two drought centered stages and two flood-centered stages,and the longest duration of drought period (997 years) was far larger than that of flood period (484 years).There were significant cycles of 24 years,67-76 years,92 years and 178-198 years in the whole time scale.【Conclusion】Drought and floods occurred frequently in Weihe plain during past 2 205 years with significant periodicity. |
| Key words: droughts and floods disaster occurrence regularity disaster evolution characteristics Weihe plain |
