| 摘要: |
| 【目的】准确预估未来气候变化条件下河南省夏玉米产量的变化，探索保障河南省夏玉米生产可持续发展较为有效的适应措施。【方法】将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区，引入未来气候变化情景数据，分别为基准气候条件（RCP rf，1951-2005）和未来（2006-2050）RCP 4.5（中）、RCP 8.5（高）两种浓度路径（RCPs）情景。利用CERES-Maize模型模拟未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米潜在产量和雨养产量的影响。以作物模型和气候情景数据为基础，分别模拟改变种植密度、调整播期和优化灌溉方式3种适应措施的增产效果。【结果】未来不同气候变化情景下，河南各地区夏玉米潜在产量较基准条件降低6.1%～18.1% (RCP 4.5)和14.3%～24.6% (RCP 8.5)，其中RCP 4.5情景下豫北减产最高(15.9%)，RCP 8.5情景下豫东减产最高(21.1%)；夏玉米雨养产量较基准条件降低5.1%～28.5% (RCP 4.5)和8.3%～28.9%(RCP 8.5)，豫东减产最高，减产率分别为20.1%(RCP 4.5)和24.4%(RCP 8.5)；不同气候变化情景下，夏玉米潜在和雨养产量差在0～2 814 kg/hm2 (RCP rf),0～1 868 kg/hm2 (RCP 4.5)和0～2 132 kg/hm2(RCP 8.5)，豫北产量差最高，豫西南降水较充足产量差最低，豫北和豫西产量差较基准条件降低，豫东产量差略增加。通过改变种植密度、调整播期和优化灌溉方式等措施，探讨不同适应措施的应用效果表明，种植密度每增加1万株/hm2，夏玉米潜在产量增加3.8%～4.0%（豫北和豫东）和5.2%～5.6%（豫西和豫西南）；雨养产量增加3.2%～3.7%（豫北和豫东）和5.2%～5.5%（豫西和豫西南）。播期推迟10 d，夏玉米潜在产量各区分别提高1.6%～9.5%（RCP 4.5）和2.7%～8.5%（RCP 8.5），雨养产量各区分别提高3.8%～13.2%（RCP 4.5）和5.4%～13.1%（RCP 8.5）。优化灌溉措施更适用于豫北和豫东，最高可分别增产31.4%，19.4%（RCP 4.5）和34.2%，16.9%（RCP 8.5）。【结论】未来RCP情景夏玉米潜在产量、雨养产量较基准气候条件均降低；增加种植密度、播期推迟10 d可实现增产，在播种期和拔节-抽雄期2个阶段同时灌溉，可提高水资源利用效率。 |
| 关键词: RCP气候变化情景 夏玉米 产量潜力 CERES-Maize 模型 种植密度 优化灌溉 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0300304)；中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室基金项目(AMF20-1905)；中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201408） |
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| Variation of summer maize yield under RCP scenarios and adaptation measures in Henan |
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LI Shuyan,PAN Xuebiao,WANG Jing
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study predicted the variation of summer maize yield under future climate change and proposed corresponding adaptation measures in Henan.【Method】The climate change scenarios (RCPs) including baseline climate scenario (RCP rf,1951-2005) and two future climate change scenarios with middle (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) during 2006-2050 were used to drive the CERES-Maize model.The impact of future climate change on maize yields in four major maize planting regions of Henan was investigated.Based on the model and climate scenario data,the effects of three adaptation measures of changing density,adjusting sowing date and optimizing irrigation were simulated.【Result】Without considering the adaptation options,the potential yield of summer maize would decrease by 6.1%-18.1% (RCP 4.5) and 14.3%-24.6% (RCP 8.5) compared with the baseline.The highest yield reduction was 15.9% in northern Henan under RCP 4.5 scenario and 21.1% in eastern Henan under RCP 8.5 scenario.The rainfed yield of summer maize would decrease by 5.1%-28.5% (RCP 4.5) and 8.3%-28.9% (RCP 8.5) compared with the baseline.The highest yield reductions were 20.1% (RCP 4.5) and 24.4% (RCP 8.5) in eastern Henan.Under different RCP scenarios,the yield gaps between the potential and rainfed yields of summer maize were 0-2 814 kg/hm2 (RCP rf),0-1 868 kg/hm2 (RCP 4.5) and 0-2 132 kg/hm2 (RCP 8.5),respectively.The highest yield gap occurred in northern Henan while the lowest yield gap occurred in southwestern Henan due to adequate growing period precipitation.Compared with the baseline,the yield gaps would decrease in northern and western Henan and increase slightly in eastern Henan.Different adaptation measures including the changes in sowing date and planting density and the optimization of irrigation applied under future climate change were analyzed.When the planting density increased by ten thousand plant per hm2,the potential yield of summer maize would increase by 3.8%-4.0% in northern and eastern Henan,and by 5.2%-5.6% in western and southwest Henan, while the rainfed yield would increase by 3.2%-3.7% in northern and eastern Henan,and by 5.2%-5.5% in western and southwest Henan.When sowing date of maize was delayed by 10 days,the potential yields of summer maize would increase by 1.6%-9.5% (RCP 4.5) and 2.7%-8.5% (RCP 8.5),while rainfed yields would increase by 3.8%-13.2% (RCP 4.5) and 5.4%-13.1% (RCP 8.5).The proposed irrigation optimization measures would be more applicable in northern and eastern Henan,where the yields could increase by 31.4%,19.4% (RCP 4.5) and 34.2%,16.9% (RCP 8.5).【Conclusion】The potential yield and rainfed yield of summer maize under RCP scenarios in the future were lower than those in baseline.Increasing planting density and delaying sowing time for 10 days could increase the yield.The water resource utilization would be high if irrigating in the two stages of sowing and jointing to tasseling. |
| Key words: RCP scenarios summer maize yield potential CERES-Maize model planting density irrigation optimization |
