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黄河故道砀山酥梨气候品质评价模型研究
李 德1, 高 超2, 孙 义,等1
1.宿州市气象局;2.安徽师范大学 江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心
摘要:
【目的】建立砀山酥梨果实的气候品质评价模型,为科学开展农产品气候品质气象认证和区域优势气候资源开发等提供技术支撑。【方法】基于1996-2015年安徽省砀山县气象站逐日气象监测资料和砀山酥梨品质因素测定数据,采用主成分分析法(PCA)、有序样本最优聚类法和逐步回归法等统计方法,建立砀山酥梨气候品质指数(V)和3个采摘时期(09-10,09-20,09-30)的梨果气候品质评价模型,并将砀山酥梨气候品质划分为4个等级。【结果】砀山酥梨气候品质指数(V)可以由8个品质要素(一级果率、二级果率、三级果率、等外果率、果实含糖率、平均单果质量、最大单果质量和果形指数)降维成4个加权求和组成,权重系数为4个主分量所对应的特征值占原变量总方差的比例。砀山酥梨气候品质4个等级“特优”、“优”、“良好”、“一般”所对应的V的阈值分别为V>0.75,0.45<V≤0.75,0.30<V≤0.45和V≤0.30。砀山酥梨气候品质指数与旬及跨旬尺度的日照、气温、降雨和空气相对湿度等19个气象因子相关,其中与日照时数和平均气温多呈正相关,与空气相对湿度和降雨方面的因子多呈负相关,尤其与4月下旬-6月上旬和7,8月3个时期的空气相对湿度因子呈极显著负相关关系(P<0.001)。3个采摘期砀山酥梨果实的气候品质评价回归方程分别由6,6,8个气象因子构成;3个回归方程的模拟精度均较高,均方根误差为0.03~0.07。【结论】所建立的梨果气候品质评价模型可用于砀山酥梨气候品质的定量化评价,在采摘前由气象因子驱动相应时期的评价模型,以确定梨果气候品质等级。
关键词:  气候品质  气象因子  评价模型  砀山酥梨
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41571018);安徽省气象科技发展基金项目(KM201607)
Evaluation model of climate quality for Dangshansu pear in the Old Yellow River
LI De,GAO Chao,SUN Yi,et al
Abstract:
【Objective】The climate quality models of Dangshansu pear were built to provide technical support for developing meteorological certification work of climatic quality of agricultural products and development of regional advantage climate resources.【Method】Based on the daily meteorological monitoring data at Dangshan,Anhui from 1996 to 2015 and the measurement data of quality factors of Dangshansu pear.The climatic quality index of Dangshansu pear (V) and evaluation model of climate quality of Dangshansu pear during three sampling periods (September 10,September 20 and September 30) were established using principal component analysis (PCA),ordered cluster optimal clustering and stepwise regression method.The climate quality of Dangshansu pear was then divided into four grades.【Results】The quality index (V) of Dangshansu pear can be calculated from 8 quality factors (rate of first grade fruit,rate of second grade fruit,rate of third grade fruit,substandard fruit rate,fruit sugar content,average fruit weight,maximum fruit weight and fruit shape index).The dimension was reduced into four weighted sums.The weight coefficients were the ratios of the Eigen values of four principal components to the total variance of the original variables.The thresholds corresponding to the four levels of extra superior,excellent,good,and general were V>0.75,0.45<V≤0.75,0.30<V≤0.45 and V≤0.30,respectively.The climatic quality index of Dangshansu pear was related to 19 meteorological factors in ten days or more such as sunshine,air temperature,precipitation and air relative humidity.Among them,there was a positive correlation with sunshine duration and mean air temperature,and negative correlation with air relative humidity and precipitation factors.In particular,the negative correlations between air relative humidity factors in late April-early June,July and August were tested by the significance level of P<0.001.The regression equations of climate quality of Dangshansu pear fruit in three harvesting periods included 6,6 and 8 meteorological factors respectively.The precisions of three regression equations were high with root mean square error of 0.03-0.07.【Conclusion】The established models can be used as a quantitative evaluation method for the climate quality of Dangshansu pear.Before picking,the meteorological factors can be used to determine the climatic quality of Dangshansu pear.
Key words:  climatic quality  meteorological factor  evaluation model  Dangshansu pear