| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究黄河流域年内和年际尺度的干旱特征，为评估干旱、半干旱地区极端气候提供参考。【方法】基于VIC模型划分0.5°×0.5°经纬网，结合黄河流域多年降水资料，将子流域所有网格日径流取均值，采用GPP（Gringorten plotting position）算法构建非参数多变量综合干旱指数（Non-parametric multivariate standardized drought index，NMSDI），并在黄河流域进行了实例应用。【结果】（1）在6个月尺度上，干旱初期NMSDI指数与标准化降水指数（Standardized precipitation index，SPI）类似，末期与标准化流量指数（Standardized streamnow index，SSI）类似。（2）黄河上游及北部干旱较其他区域更为严重，旱灾风险春夏高、秋冬低。（3）黄河流域年内和年际的NMSDI指数以降低为主，但R/S分析表明，降低的趋势在未来有所减缓。（4）黄河流域年际NMSDI系列趋于稳定，仅渭河流域在1991年出现突变，可能是气候变化与人类活动耦合的结果。【结论】与传统的干旱指标相比，NMSDI综合了气象、水文干旱指标的特点且不依赖于假设的分布函数，可以有效捕获干旱状态，同时避免了不同指标之间不能直接比较的不足，在研究流域有较好的适用性。 |
| 关键词: 综合干旱指数 非参数方法 VIC模型 标准化降水指数（SPI） 黄河流域 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大项目（51190093）；陕西省重点科技创新团队项目（2012KCT-10）；水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目（2012490511） |
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| Application of VIC model based standardized drought index in the Yellow River Basin |
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ZHU Yuelu,CHANG Jianxia
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study investigated drought characteristics at annual and inter annual scales in the Yellow River basin to provide reference for the assessment of extreme climate in arid and semi-arid regions.【Method】Grid cells with 0.5°×0.5° were set up based on VIC model.Combined with the multiply years precipitation data,the average runoffs of all sub basins were calculated,and the plotting position Gringorten algorithm was used to construct a non-parametric multivariate standardized drought index (NMSDI).【Result】(1) On 6 months scale,NMSDI was similar as standardized precipitation index (SPI) in early drought and similar as standardized streamnow index (SSI) in end drought.(2) The drought in the upper reaches and north of Yellow River was more severe than other regions,and drought risk in spring and summer was higher than in autumn and winter.(3) The annual and inter annual NMSDI indexes of the Yellow River basin decreased,while R/S analysis showed that the trend in future would reduce.(4) In the Yellow River basin,annual NMSDI series would tend still,only mutations occurred in the Wei River basin in 1991 as a result of climate change and human activities.【Conclusion】Compared with traditional drought index,NMSDI does not rely on assumptions about the distribution of function and avoids the lack of different indicators.It has good applicability in the study watershed. |
| Key words: standardized drought index non-parametric method VIC model standardized precipitation index (SPI) the Yellow River basin |
