| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析大通河流域上游径流变化特征，明晰其演变规律，为大通河流域水资源规划与管理提供科学依据。【方法】利用累积距平、滑动平均、R/S法、Cramer法和小波分析法等方法，对大通河上游流域径流的年内年际变化特征、趋势、突变状况及周期进行分析，并针对径流变化的成因进行了探讨。【结果】大通河上游流域径流量存在以下特点：（1）径流量年内分配不均，81.6%～87.2%的径流量主要集中在汛期；年际变化波动频繁，1956-2010年经历了“丰-枯-丰-枯”4个循环交替；（2）近半个世纪以来，大通河流域上游径流呈减少趋势，尕日得和尕大滩站径流年均递减系数分别为0.010 2和0.006亿m3/年，两站Hurst指数分别为0.70和0.58，表明径流减少趋势具有正持续性；（3）大通河上游径流在1989年出现突变，原因是1989年汛期发生大面积集中降水，因此突变不具有持续性；（4）大通河上游流域年径流量在6，18及30年左右时间尺度上周期振荡明显；（5）气候变化是大通河上游流域径流减少的主要原因，而人类活动（主要是外调水工程）直接导致了上游径流的减少。【结论】受人类活动和气候变化影响，大通河流域上游径流量已经发生明显变化，在大通河流域水资源开发利用和管理中应引起重视。 |
| 关键词: 大通河 径流变化 径流突变 R/S法 Cramer法 小波分析 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51190093，51309188，51179149，91325201）；陕西省重点科技创新团队项目（2012KCT-10）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目（20116118110009）；陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目（13JS069） |
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| Abrupt change and variation characteristics of runoff in the upper reaches of Datong River basin |
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LIU Sai-yan,HUANG Qiang,XIE Yang-yang,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study analyzed the variation characteristics and development of runoff in the upper reaches of Datong River basin to provide scientific basis for water resources planning and management.【Method】Cumulative anomaly,moving average,R/S method,Cramer method,and wavelet analysis were used to conduct stream features,tendency,detection for abrupt changes and period analysis.The reasons for runoff variations were also analyzed.【Result】(1) The annual runoff was mainly distributed in flood season with the ratio of up to 81.6%-87.2%.The inter－annual runoff fluctuated significantly,experiencing “wet year－dry year－wet year－dry year” four cycles from 1956 to 2010.(2)The flows of Garide and Gadatan decreased by 0.010 2×108 m3/a and 0.006×108 m3/a,respectively for the past half century.The Hurst indexes of the two hydrological stations were 0.70 and 0.58,indicating that the decreasing trend had positive persistence.(3) According to the Cramer Test,a mutation was found in 1989 due to large area precipitation in flood season,and it had no continuity.(4) The principal periods of the stream-flow were 6 years,18 years and 30 years.(5) Climate change was the primary reason for the reduction of runoff due to water diversion projects and human activities directly led to the decline of upstream runoff.【Conclusion】Affected by human activities and climate change,the runoff of Datong River basin upper stream has changed greatly,and attention should be paid to water resources utilization and management. |
| Key words: Datong River runoff variation runoff abrupt change R/S method Cramer method wavelet analysis |
