| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究气候变化和人类活动对北洛河径流变化的贡献，分析径流变化的主要驱动因子，为北洛河流域水资源的合理利用提供决策依据。【方法】以北洛河流域1956-2011年共56年的降水量以及实测、还原径流深序列为研究对象，采用Mann-Kendall法、径流系数法、降水 径流双累积曲线法进行变异点诊断，量化分析气候变化、下垫面变化和其他人类活动对径流变异的贡献率。【结果】北洛河流域1956－2011年降水量变化不明显，但还原径流深呈现出不显著增加趋势，变异点出现在1964和2001年。以变异点为分界点，将第一阶段（1956-1963年）作为下垫面Ⅰ，第二阶段（1964-2000年）作为下垫面Ⅱ建立降水 径流关系式，模拟在下垫面Ⅰ和下垫面Ⅱ情景下第三阶段（2001-2011年）的径流序列，模拟结果显示，建立的降水 径流关系式能够很好地反映不同下垫面径流的变化情况。下垫面Ⅱ与下垫面Ⅰ情况下模拟径流的变化量为-7.00 mm，表明径流下垫面Ⅱ情况下的产流比下垫面Ⅰ大。定量分析下垫面变化、其他人类活动和气候变化对径流变异的贡献，发现气候变化的贡献率为40%；人类活动为主要影响因素，总贡献率为60%，其中下垫面变化的影响占19%，其他人类活动的影响占41%。【结论】人类活动是北洛河流域径流变异的关键驱动因子，下垫面变化的影响也不可忽视。 |
| 关键词: 北洛河流域 径流变化 气候变化 人类活动 下垫面 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大项目（51190093）；国家自然科学基金项目（51179148，51179149）；国家重点基础研究(973)计划项目（2011CB403306）；陕西省重点实验室项目（11JS077） |
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| Impacts of climate change and human activity on runoff variation of Beiluo River |
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FAN Jing-jing,HUANG Qiang,LIU Deng-feng,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change and analyzed the main driving factors in Beiluo River basin to provide reference for water resources management.【Method】The precipitation,recorded and nature runoff depths from a total of 56 years (1956-2011) in Beiluo River were analyzed to detect the impacts of underlying surface,climate change and other human activities.Mann-Kendall method,runoff coefficient method and precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method were used to analyze the variation points and obtain the contributions of climate change,underlying surface and human activities.【Result】The precipitation did not change significantly since 1956,while the runoff had insignificantly decreasing trend.The break points occurred at 1964 and 2001.Based on the break points,the runoff series were divided into 3 portions:underlying surface Ⅰ during 1956-1963,underlying surface Ⅱ during 1964-2000,and phase 3 during 2001-2011.Runoff and precipitation correlations were developed under underlying surface Ⅰ and underlying surface Ⅱ,and used to estimate the runoff series in period 2001-2011.The estimated results showed that the developed precipitation runoff relations can identify the runoff difference between different underlying surfaces.The difference between underlying surface Ⅰ and underlying surface Ⅱ was -7.00 mm,indicating that the runoff production in underlying Ⅰ was better.Climate change contributed to 40% of runoff change.Human activities were the main driving factor at Beiluo River basin with the contribution of 60%,among which 19% was from underlying surface change and 41% was from other human activities.【Conclusion】The main driving factor of runoff change was human activities at Beiluo River basin,and the impacts of underlying surface change were also significant. |
| Key words: Beiluo River basin runoff change climate change human activities underlying surface |
