| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预测中国境内药用植物何首乌［Fallopia multiflora (Thunb.) Harald］在气候变化背景下的适生区分布格局变迁及其相对稳定适生区。【方法】基于何首乌的138个分布数据以及当代（1995－2000年）和未来（21世纪20-80年代）的气候数据，同时考虑3种温室气体排放情景，用最大熵模型预测其地理分布。【结果】① 何首乌的当代适生区主要分布于四川、重庆、陕西、广西、云南、湖北等地境内；② 何首乌当代适生区总面积为 205.38×104 km2，占中国国土面积的21.39%；③ 何首乌当代适生区面积53.86%的区域为相对稳定适生区，受气候变化影响相对较弱；④ 在气候变化背景下，何首乌总适生区及低度适生区面积将大幅减少，中度适生区面积将保持相对稳定，而高度适生区面积将大幅增加。【结论】未来气候变化对何首乌分布的负面影响主要体现在总适生区面积的缩减，预测何首乌相对稳定适生区的面积为110.61×104 km2，该地区可作为其规范化种植候选地，剩余受气候变化影响显著的区域可作为何首乌野生种质资源调查和收集的优先区域。 |
| 关键词: 何首乌 物种分布模型 最大熵模型 分布区预测 药用植物 |
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| 基金项目:“秦巴山区可持续发展协同创新中心”资助项目 |
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| Predicting suitable habitats of medicinal plant Fallopia multiflora in China under climate change scenarios |
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PAN Shi-yu,ZHU Zhi-hong,YAO Tian-hua,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The current and future distribution and stable suitable areas (i.e.low impact areas) were predicted for medicinal plant Fallopia multiflora (Thunb.) in China under climate change scenarios.【Method】Maximum entropy model was employed to predict the geographic distribution of F.multiflora based on 138 occurrence records (1995-2000) and bioclimatic data (2020s-2080s).【Result】①The current suitable habitats of F.multiflora distributed in Sichuan,Chongqing,Shaanxi,Guangxi,Yunnan and Hubei.②The total area of current suitable habitats of F.multiflora was 205.38×104 km2,accounting for 21.39% of China’s land area.③53.86% of the current suitable habitats would be weakly impacted by climate change.④The areas of total and lowly suitable habitats would decrease significantly under climate change,that of moderately suitable habitats would remain stable,while that of highly suitable habitats would increase sharply.【Conclusion】The negative effect of climate change upon F.multiflora was the shrinking of total suitable habitats.The predicted stable suitable area was 110.61×104 km2,which can be regarded as candidate areas for standardized cultivation.Remaining current suitable habitats can be used as priority areas for field survey and collection of germplasm resource. |
| Key words: Fallopia multiflora (Thunb.) Harald species distribution modeling (SDM) maximum entropy modeling range prediction medicinal plants |
