| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预测未来大气环流模式HadCM3下，河西走廊在人口较快增长、温室气体高排放情景(A2)和区域可持续发展、温室气体低排放情景(B2)下气温和降水的变化趋势。【方法】选取河西走廊14个气象站的日平均气温、日最低气温、日最高气温和日降水量作为预报量，以全球大气NCEP再分析资料作为预报因子，采用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)预测研究区未来气温和降水的变化。【结果】SDSM对河西走廊气温和降水模拟的解释方差分别为0.54～0.85和0.09～0.64。2070-2099年 A2情景下，河西走廊日平均气温、日最低气温、日最高气温分别增加4.8，2.4和5.4 ℃，B2情景下分别增加3.5，2.0和4.0 ℃；河西走廊西部部分地区2070-2099年A2情景年降水量增加20.0%，B2情景增加6.7%，而中东部地区2070-2099年A2情景年降水量减少22.0%，B2情景年降水量减少15.4%。未来河西走廊极端最低气温和极端最高气温均有所增加，极端降水事件发生的频率有所减小。【结论】SDSM对气温的模拟效果明显优于降水；河西走廊未来A2、B2情景下日最低气温、日最高气温、日平均气温总体呈上升趋势，其中日最低气温的增幅小于日最高气温和日平均气温的增幅；河西走廊未来降水量的变化趋势具有区域特征，西部部分地区呈增加趋势，而中东部地区呈减少趋势。 |
| 关键词: 河西走廊 统计降尺度模型 气候变化 极端气候 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51279166）；西北农林科技大学中央高校基本科研业务费科技创新重点项目(QN201168) |
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| Future spatial and temporal changes of temperature and precipitation in Hexi corridor based on SDSM |
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HAO Li-na,SU Xiao-ling,WANG Ning
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The study predicted the future variations of temperature and precipitation under A2 and B2 scenarios (HadCM3) in Hexi corridor.【Method】Choosing daily average temperature,daily minimum temperature,daily maximum temperature and daily precipitation of 14 stations as predictands and using atmospheric variables of HadCM3 models and the NCEP reanalysis data as predictorsaims,SDSM was applied to predict the change of temperature and precipitation in future.【Result】The explained variances of temperature and precipitation in Hexi corridor were 0.54－0.85 and 0.09－0.64,respectively.Daily average temperature,daily minimum temperature,and daily maximum temperature would increase by 4.8,2.4,and 5.4 ℃ in 2070-2099 under A2 scenario,and increase by 3.5,2.0,and 4.0 ℃ under B2 scenario.Annual precipitation would increase by 20.0% in 2070-2099 under A2 scenario,and increase by 6.7% under B2 scenario in the western parts of this region,while it would decrease by 22.0% in 2070-2099 under A2 scenario and decrease by 15.4% under B2 scenario in the center and eastern of this region.In future,extreme high and low temperatures would increase and the probability of extreme precipitation events would decrease.【Conclusion】The simulation of temperature by SDSM was better than precipitation.The daily minimum temperature,daily maximum temperature,and daily average temperature would increase from 2010-2039 to 2070-2099 under A2 and B2,and the increments of daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature would be larger than that of daily minimum temperature.Daily precipitation would change differently in different areas with increase in the western and decrease in the center and eastern of this region. |
| Key words: Hexi corridor statistical downscaling model climate change extreme climate |
