| 摘要: |
| 【目的】从定量化的角度研究旱涝的不稳定度，为提高旱涝的预测精度提供参考。【方法】采用关中地区42个气象站1971-2007年的月降水量资料，运用成因分析法和数理统计法推导旱涝不稳定度及其分析变量的计算方法，分析关中地区不同时间尺度下旱涝不稳定度的时空分布及其变化规律。【结果】不同时间尺度下，关中地区旱涝不稳定度最小值均为0，说明旱涝状态均会连续发生。时间尺度为3和6个月时，旱涝的平均不稳定度与降水量成反比。不同时间尺度下，旱涝不稳定度均呈现出一定的周期性变化特征，且其波动程度基本与时间尺度成正比。长时间尺度下（6和12个月），旱涝不稳定度呈逐渐减小趋势。【结论】旱涝不稳定度能够较好地反映旱涝变化的剧烈程度，且计算简单、便于应用。 |
| 关键词: 不稳定度 旱涝预测 关中地区 时空分布 |
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| 基金项目:陕西省国际合作重点项目(2012KW-24-01)；国家自然科学基金项目(51179160) |
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| Quantitative research and application of drought and waterlog instability |
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SHAO Jin,LI Yi,SONG Song-bai
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】From the perspective of quantitative degree, this study focused on the drought and waterlog instability to provide a reference for improving prediction accuracy of droughts and waterlogs.【Method】 Using the monthly precipitation data of 42 meteorological stations in Guanzhong area from 1971-2007,the study deduced drought and waterlog instability,and its evaluation index based on cause analysis method and mathematical statistics method.Then,the spatiotemporal distribution and variation of drought and waterlog instability in Guanzhong at different time scales were analyzed.【Result】At different time scales,the minimum values of drought and waterlog instability were zeros,indicating that droughts and waterlogs would happen continuously.The average drought and waterlog instability was inversely proportional to precipitation when the time scales were 3 months and 6 months.Drought and waterlog instability presented certain periodicity changing characteristics at all time scales and its fluctuation extent was proportional to the length of time scale by and large.In longer time scales (6 and 12 months),drought and waterlog instabilities tended to decrease gradually.【Conclusion】Drought and waterlog instability can well reflect acuteness degree of droughts and waterlogs,and it is simple to calculate and easy to apply. |
| Key words: instability prediction of droughts and waterlogs Guanzhong spatiotemporal distribution |
