| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究未来气候情景下大豆生育期和产量的变化，为保障大豆生产安全、充分合理利用热量资源，以及应对气候变化对东北三省大豆生产的影响提供科学依据。【方法】基于区域气候模式和WOFOST作物生长模型，模拟了A2（强调经济发展）和B2（强调可持续发展）情景下2021-2050年大豆熟型的可能分布及生育期、产量的变化趋势。【结果】①以B2情景为例，不同熟型大豆品种种植北界不同程度北移东扩，极早熟、早熟、中早熟、中熟、中晚熟和晚熟品种适宜种植区北移，极早熟、早熟、中早熟、中熟、中晚熟及晚熟品种适宜种植范围缩小，极晚熟品种适宜种植范围扩大。②在A2情景下，东北三省大豆出苗期平均提前2.2 d，开花期平均提前3.0 d；在B2情景下，大豆出苗期平均提前3.0 d，开花期平均提前4.2 d。③在A2情景下，2021-2030年辽宁省大部及吉林省大部地区大豆减产，辽宁东部及吉林省东南部小部分地区减产10%以上，2031-2050年东北三省大部地区大豆减产10%以上。④在B2情景下，2021-2050年东北三省大部地区大豆减产，2031-2050年东北三省大部地区大豆减产10%以上。【结论】在A2和B2情景下，未来30年间大豆出苗 开花阶段缩短，生育进程加快，生育期缩短有可能发生；大豆减产面积不断增加，减产幅度逐渐增大。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 东北三省 大豆 生育期 产量 |
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| 基金项目:国家软科学研究计划项目（2012GXS4B071） |
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| Effects of climate change on soybean growth period and yield in Northeast China |
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QU Hui-hui,ZHU Hai-xia,WANG Qiu-jing,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study studied the change of soybean growth period and yield in future climate scenarios in Northeast China,aiming to provide scientific basis for soybean safety production,heat resources utilization and responses to effects of climate change on soybean production in Northeast China.【Method】In this study,a regional climate model and a crop model (WOFOST) were used to simulate the change of emergence,anthesis and yields of soybean during 2021-2050 in A2 (emphasizing economic development) and B2 (emphasizing sustainable development) climatic scenarios.【Result】①Taking the B2 scenario as example,the northern planting limits of different maturity-types soybean varieties would move northward and eastward with different degrees.The appropriate area of extra-early-mature,early-mature,mid-early-mature,medium-mature,mid-late-mature and late-mature soybeans would move northward.The area of extra-early-mature,early-mature,mid-early-mature,medium-mature,mid-late mature and late mature soybeans would decrease,while the area of extra late mature soybean would increase.② Under A2 scenario,the emergence and anthesis of soybeans would advance 2.2 and 3.0 days in Northeast China,respectively.Under B2 scenario,the emergence and anthesis of soybeans would advance 3.0 and 4.2 days,respectively.③ Under A2 scenario,the yield of soybeans would reduce between 2021-2030 in most area of Liaoning and Jilin with >10% decrease in eastern Liaoning and southeast Jilin.The yield would reduce by >10% in 2031-2050 in most area of Northeast China.④ Under B2 scenario,the yield of soybeans would reduce during 2021-2050 in most area,and it would reduce by >10% during 2031-2050 in most area of Northeast China.【Conclusion】Under A2 and B2 scenarios,the duration from emergence to anthesis would be shortened,the growth course would be accelerated,and the growth period might be shortened.The area with yield reduction would increase continually,and yield reduction would increase gradually. |
| Key words: climate change three provinces of Northeast China soybean growth period yield |
