| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究四川省近30年森林火灾重灾区火灾发生与气象因子的关系。【方法】对四川省21个地区的森林火灾发生情况进行统计分析，将其划分为重度火灾、中度火灾和轻度火灾3个火灾区域；基于1979-2008年的森林火灾数据和气象数据，通过相关性分析、主成分分析、回归分析，探讨重灾区火灾发生与各气象因子的关系。【结果】四川的森林火灾主要集中在凉山州、攀枝花市和甘孜州，其年均火灾面积分别为2 866.99，1 141.84和1 129.00 hm2，发生火灾次数占到全省的61.6%，火灾面积占到全省的92.4%；在火灾重灾区，风速、日照时数、降水量与林火的发生呈显著相关；各个地区森林火灾的发生都有各自的主导气象因子，并且随时间的发展随机变化，在某些年份火灾的发生可能是某些极端气候所导致。【结论】四川省森林火灾的发生总体上随时间推移呈现下降的趋势，重灾区森林火灾与风速、日照时数、降水量呈显著线性相关。 |
| 关键词: 火灾次数 火灾面积 相关性 气象因子 四川省 |
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| 基金项目:国家林业公益性行业科研专项(200804001) |
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| Relationship of forest fires and meteorological factors in Sichuan province |
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LI De, NIU Shukui, LONG Xianhua,et al
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Beijing Forestry University,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The relationship of forest fires and meteorological factors in last 30 years in Sichuan province was studied.【Method】21 regions of Sichuan province were statistically analyzed and attributed to three groups:severe fire region,moderate fire region,and mild fire region.Correlation analysis,principal component analysis and regression analysis methods were used to investigate the relationship between occurences of forest fire and metorological factors.【Result】Forest fires were mainly concentrated in Liangshan Prefecture,Panzhihua City and Ganzi Prefecture in Sichuan,with average annual fire areas of 2 866.99,1 141.84 and 1 129.00 hm2,respectively.These three regions accounted for 61.6% of the total fires based on the number of occurrences and 92.4% based on the fire areas.Wind speed,sunshine time,and rainfall had significant correlation with fires.Dominanting meteorological factors of different regions were different and they changed over time randomly.In addition,extreme climate accounted for some fire events.【Conclusion】Forest fires in Sichuan province had a decreasing trend over past 30 years,and the fire events were related to wind speed,sunshine time,and rainfall. |
| Key words: number of fires fire area correlation meteorological factor Sichuan province |
