| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析甘南玛曲地区地表温度的变化特征及其变化趋势，为该地区生态环境的可持续发展提供参考。【方法】利用甘南玛曲地区1971-2010年的地表温度观测数据，用线性趋势分析、小波分析及突变分析等方法，对玛曲地区40年的年际、年代际、突变年份及地表温度与气温的关系等气候变化特征进行分析。【结果】甘南玛曲地区平均地表温度以0.6 ℃/10a的速率升高，2000年之后升幅达到1.9 ℃/10a。各季节平均地表温度呈现出不同程度的升高趋势，最高、最低平均地表温度亦呈升高趋势，平均地表温度的升高主要以最低地表温度的上升为主。甘南玛曲地区年平均地表温度2000年之前为负距平，2000年之后为正距平变化；各季节平均地表温度在进入2000年后升幅加剧，且以冬季上升的趋势最为显著；1971-2010年最低地表温度的升幅明显大于最高地表温度，最高、最低地表温度均表现出以20世纪70年代最低、2001-2010年间最高的年代际变化特征。平均地表温度存在较为明显的准7年短周期和12～13年长周期；年及各季节平均地表温度均发生了增高突变，其中年及春、秋季增高突变均发生在20世纪80年代，夏、冬季发生在20世纪90年代；且以春季平均地表温度发生突变的时间最早，出现在1984年。年平均气温与地表温度在变化趋势上具有很强的一致性，两者的相关系数达到0.93，呈显著正相关。【结论】地表温度不断升高和超载过牧，均促进了甘南玛曲地区草地退化的进程和草地沙化的发生发展，降低对草地生态系统的依赖与干扰是该地区草地资源得以可持续发展的有效途径。 |
| 关键词: 甘南玛曲地区 地表温度 变化趋势 突变年份 |
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| 基金项目:2011年甘肃省气象局青年科技开发基金项目 |
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| Analysis on changes of surface temperature in Maqu area of Gannan |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Analysis of the change character and trend of surface temperature in Maqu area of Gannan was done to offer reference for the sustainable development of ecological environment in the area.【Method】Using the surface temperature observation data of Gannan Maqu area in the period of from 1971 to 2010,through the methods of linear-trend analysis,Mann-Kendall catastrophe test,wavelet analysis,we analyzed the interannual,decadal,mutations years and their relations with temperature and other characteristics of climate change of nearly 40a.【Result】The results show that the average surface temperature increases at a rate of 0.6 ℃/10a and it increased by 1.9 ℃/10a after 2000.The surface temperature of the season showed an increasing tendency in different degrees,so did the Max and Min of the surface temperature.The increasing tendency was dominated by the increase of the minimum surface temperature.The mean surface temperature anomaly was negative before 2000 and positive after 2000 in the Maqu area of Gannan.After 2000,the seasonal mean surface temperature increased more significantly than before,especially in winter.The minimum surface temperature increased greater than the maximum between 1971 to 2010.The results suggested that both the maximum and minimum were the lowest in the 1970s and had the peak values in the 2000s.There existed 7 years and 12-13 years of cycle in changes of annual average surface temperature.The annual mean surface temperature as well as seasonal surface temperature occurred abrupt increasing.The annual mean surface temperature as well as spring and autumn surface temperature presented abrupt increase in the 1980s,the summer surface temperature and winter increased abruptly in the 1990s.And the spring surface temperature increased abruptly and earliest in 1984.Trends of annual mean surface temperature and air temperature were basically the same,and the correlation quotiety was 0.93.【Conclusion】The gradual increase of the surface temperature and overgazing accelerates the degradation of gressland and desertification in Maqu area of Gansan.The effective measures for the sustainable development of the area have less dependece and interefence of the grassland resources in the area. |
| Key words: Maqu area of Gannan surface temperature trend year of abrupt change |
