| 摘要: |
| 【目的】建立黄河内蒙古段主要水情控制断面冰情信息的预报模型，为黄河内蒙古段的冰凌研究和灾害防治提供参考。【方法】选择黄河内蒙段三湖河站为研究对象，运用数理统计中的互相关分析和显著性检验方法，对黄河三湖河站封河日期、开河日期及影响因素的时间序列进行分析，筛选封、开河日期的预报因子，进而建立冰情信息预报的AGA-Shepard模型。【结果】依据《水文情报预报规范》，所建立的AGA-Shepard模型对于三湖河站封、开河日期的预报精度达到85.7%和83.3%，属于甲等预报方案。【结论】建立的AGA-Shepard模型可以用于黄河三湖河站封河日期、开河日期的预报。 |
| 关键词: AGA-Shepard模型 黄河三湖河站 封、开河日期 冰情预报 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:内蒙古水利厅科技计划项目(201007)；国家自然科学基金项目(51060001)；内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2010MS0618)；黄河水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所专项(HKY-JBYW-2010-04) |
|
| Prediction on the frozen-date and breakup-date of Sanhuhe Station on the Yellow River by AGA-Shepard Model |
|
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】By building the predicted model of ice information in mayor hydrologic information control section,the reference suggestions were presented for prevention and research of ice disasters in Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River.【Method】Sanhuhe Hydrologic Station was selected as the research object.By analyzing the time series of the Frozen-and-breakup-date and factors of Sanhuhe Hydrologic Station by the Cross-correlation Analysis and Distinctive Testing Method in Mathematical statistics,the predicted factors were shifted out to build the AGA-Shepard Predicting Model.【Result】In accordance with the Norm of Hydrological Forecasting Specification,the predicted accuracy of the AGA Shepard Model for the Frozen-and-breakup-date of Sanhuhe Hydrologic Station reached 85.7% and 83.3%,which was A-level prediction scheme.【Conclusion】The AGA-Shepard Model we have built can be used to predict the Frozen-and-breakup-date of Sanhuhe Hydrologic Station. |
| Key words: AGA-Shepard Model Sanhuhe station on the Yellow River frozen-and-breakup-date ice condition prediction |
