| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 确定恰当的流域汛期，为水库的防洪安全奠定基础，同时为水资源的优化调度提供决策依据。【方法】 基于相关分析方法，采用千河流域31年的日均流量资料，对流域不同时段的径流自相关性进行研究, 根据其显著性差异确定千河流域的汛期和主汛期。最后从水文气象学原理出发，结合西北地区的气候特征分析，对汛期和主汛期的划分结果进行验证。【结果】 确定千河流域的汛期为5月下旬至10月上旬，与千河流域主要降雨期一致；主汛期为07-01-08-31，与千河流域的暴雨峰值期一致；说明汛期、主汛期的划分结果是合理的。【结论】 基于相关分析法的汛期划分研究，方法简单直观，物理概念清晰，可为千河流域冯家山水库的安全运行及水资源调度决策提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 相关分析 自相关系数 汛期划分 主汛期 |
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| 基金项目:国家“863”高新技术研究与发展计划项目（2002AA62Z3191）；国家冻土工程重点实验室基金项目（9901） |
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| Preliminary study of basins’ flood season division based on correlation analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The research was conducted to determine the flood season and main flood season properly,make sure of the base of hydrological safety and the prerequisite of water resource optimization dispatch.【Method】 With the 31 years daily flow data of Qianhe basin,the self correlation coefficients of runoff in different time were calculated by correlation analysis.According to the self correlation significant and the coefficient critical value table,the flood season and the main flood season were determined easily.According to the principle of hydrometeorology and weather in Northwest China,the flood season and main flood season results were confirmed.【Result】 The inquired time of flood season from May 21st to Oct.10th was the same time of rain season of Northwest area and the inquired main flood season of Qianhe basin from July 1st to Aug.31st was coincident with the concentrated raining period, in this way the results were reasonable.【Conclusion】 This method is simple and intuitive,its physical concept is clear.Furthermore,the division result provides reference for the safe operation of Fengjiashan reservoir of Qianhe basin and regulation decision of water resources. |
| Key words: correlation analysis self correlation coefficient flood season division main flood season |
