| 摘要: |
| [目的]对陕西关中地区5～6月的降水趋势性进行预测,为揭示关中地区气候演变过程的动态特征提供理论依据.[方法] 采用传统Lyapunov指数与非线性局部Lyapunov指数,对关中地区1544～1989年共446年的5～6月降水量代用资料--树木年轮代用资料时间序列非线性动力系统的动力学特征进行分析.[结果] 树木年轮代用资料时间序列具有混沌特征,非线性局部Lyapunov指数随时间增加单调减少,相对误差随预报时间的增加而单调增大.[结论] 树木年轮代用资料可用于关中地区5～6月降水的趋势性预测. |
| 关键词: 树木年轮 关中地区降水 动力系统 Lyapunov指数 非线性局部Lyapunov指数 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40171093） |
|
| Dynamical character of weather evolutionary process on index of Lyapunov for tree growth-ring |
|
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Rainfall trend for 5-6th month in Guanzhong area was forecasted to provide theoretic basis to explore dynamic character of climate evolvement process in Guanzhong area.【Method】 Rainfall for 5-6th month in Guanzhong area proxy data from year 1544 to 1989（all 446 years） the tree growth-ring proxy data,that is a non-linear dynamical system,are employed to analyze the dynamical character on the classical and nonlinear local index of Lyapunov.【Result】 The results show that the time serial of tree growth ring is chaotic.The nonlinear local index of Lyapunov increases with time.The increasing ratio of nonlinear function decreases with increasing of first error on time.【Conclusion】 There is a trend forecast of rainfall for 5-6th month in Guanzhong area. |
| Key words: tree growth-ring rainfall in Guanzhong area dynamical character classical index of Lyapunov nonlinear local index of Lyapunov |
