| 摘要: |
| 对华山地区1544～1989年共446年的5～6月降雨量代用资料树木年轮非线性系统时间序列进行了动力系统特征的分析。结果表明，代用资料树轮时间序列是非线性系统的混沌时间序列，混沌吸引子在时滞参数为9，嵌入维数为3的重构向量空间中恰好打开。其Kolmogorov熵为0.032，表明华山地区现在5～6月降雨量的大小对将来5～6月的降雨量有一定影响。Hurst指数为0.555 6，说明华山地区5～6月降水量时间序列的突变性不强，即该时间序列具有持久性。 |
| 关键词: 树木年轮 气候演变过程 动力学特征 混沌时间序列 |
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| Dynamic character of climatic evolutionary process for tree growth-ring |
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| Abstract: |
| The tree growth-ring proxy data,that is,a non-linear dynamical system,are employed to analyze the dynamic character. The results show that the time serial of tree growth-ring is chaotic,the attracts are opened in reconstructed vector space when time-lag is 9 and embed dimension is 3. Kolmogorov entropy of the time-serial is 0.032,which shows the precipitation (May to June) in Huashan area sways future precipitation (May to June). Hurst exponent is 0.555 6, which shows the precipitation time serial (May to June) in Huashan area remains stable. |
| Key words: tree growth-ring climatic evolutionary process dynamic character chaos time serial |
