| 摘要: |
| 利用陕西汉中地区24年(1974～1997年)的小麦条锈病病情、菌量、品种和气象资料,采用逐步回归法分析了影响汉中小麦条锈病流行的因子,求得最优回归子集,包括春季菌量、秋季菌量、感病品种面积比例、4月份降雨量和4月份平均温度。用前20年资料建立了多元线性回归方程,对1994～1997年小麦条锈病的流行程度作短期预测(以残差绝对值≤0.5为标准统计),结果表明,方程预测的准确率为75%。 |
| 关键词: 小麦条锈病 流行因子分析 流行程度预测 汉中地区 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:］ |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(39770486) |
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| Studies on the prediction of wheat stripe rust epidemics in Hanzhong District of Shaanxi Province |
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HU Xiao ping 1 YANG Zhi wei 1 LI Zhen qi 1 DENG Zhi yong 2 KE Chang hua 1
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| Abstract: |
| Factors of wheat stripe rust epidemics were studied on the basis of analyzing the data of disease,pathogen,varieties and meteorology via stepwise regression.The results showed that key factors affecting the epidemics of wheat stripe rust were the density of pathogens in spring,the density of pathogens in autumn,the ratio of susceptible varieties,precipitation in April and average daily temperature in April.Prediction model was set up through using selected factors with data of 1974-1993.Short time span prediction of 1994-1997 was carried out respectively,with statistical standard as the absolute value of residue below or equal to 0.5.It is indicated that predictive accurate ratio of the equation reached to 75%. |
| Key words: wheat stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis West.),factors analysis,prediction,Hanzhong District |
