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| 吉林省野山参对未来极端气候变化的响应 |
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王智宇1,2,3, 范婷婷4, 李楠5, 张婷婷6, 王佳艳3,6, 黄晓楠1, 陈丽娟2, 袁福香3,7
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1.通化市气象局，吉林 通化 134001;2.阿勒泰地区气象局，新疆 阿勒泰 654301;3.人参气象服务中心，吉林 长春 130062;4.大安市气象局，吉林 大安 131300;5.长白山气象局，吉林 长白山 133613;6.集安市气象局，吉林 集安 134200;7.吉林省气象科学研究所，吉林 长春 130062
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| 摘要: |
| 【 目的】利用物种分布模型系统探讨吉林省野山参的生境适宜性变化，揭示未来气候变化情景下野山参栖息地的迁移趋势和潜在威胁。【 方法】通过野外调查并利用GBIF数据库获取野山参的物种分布数据，通过WordClim获取当前及未来不同气候情景下的生物气候数据，利用Biomdo2模型建模，对吉林野山参当前、未来潜在适生区进行预测，进一步对其空间格局变化、质心转移、响应曲线、生态位动态进行分析。【 结果】吉林野山参的高适生区主要集中在长白山及其周边的山地，且与等温性、降水量和降水量变异系数等关键环境因子密切相关。在当前气候条件下，高适生区覆盖面积为2.34 万 km2，但随着气候情境转向更为极端的SSP245及SSP585情景，适宜生境面积显著下降，2种气候情境下野山参的高适生区面积分别下降至2.00万和1.93万 km2。多元环境相似度面（MESS）分析显示，在极端情境下，环境相似度值急剧下降，物种面临更大范围的环境不适区域。生态位重叠量化分析进一步揭示，气候变化导致野山参栖息地碎片化，物种生态位的重叠度逐渐降低，尤其在SSP585情景下，生态位重叠度指数（Schoener’s D）值骤降至0.39，表明物种适宜生境的持续性显著受限。【 结论】随着未来气候变化加剧，吉林野山参的生存能力及其栖息地稳定性将面临严峻考验。未来保护工作应注重栖息地修复、生态连接与适应性管理，以应对气候变化带来的挑战，保障野山参的长期生存及生态功能的维持。 |
| 关键词: 野山参 气候变化 生态位变化 物种分布模型 吉林省 |
| DOI：10. 13207/j. jnwafu. 2026. 06. 015 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2025J158）；吉林省气象局技术发展专项（202430）；吉林省气象标准执行专项（QX/BZZX202409） |
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| Response of Panax ginseng in Jilin Province to future extreme climate change |
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WANG Zhiyu1,2,3, FAN Tingting4, LI Nan5, ZHANG Tingting6, WANG Jiayan3,6, HUANG Xiaonan1, CHEN Lijuan2, YUAN Fuxiang3,7
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1.Tonghua Meteorological Bureau，Tonghua，Jilin 134001，China;2.Altai Meteorological Bureau，Altai，Xinjiang 654301，China;3.Ginseng Meteorological Service Center，Changchun，Jilin 130062，China;4.Da’an Meteorological Bureau，Da’an，Jilin 131300，China;5.Changbai Mountain Meteorological Bureau，Changbai Mountain，Jilin 133613，China;6.Ji’an Meteorological Bureau，Ji’an，Jilin 134200，China;7.Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province，Changchun，Jilin 130062，China
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| Abstract: |
| 【 Objective】This research aims to systematically assess changes in habitat suitability for Panax ginseng in Jilin Province by using species distribution models，to reveal migration trends and potential threats to P. ginseng habitats under future climate scenarios.【Method】Occurrence records of P. ginseng were collected from field surveys and GBIF database，and current and future bioclimatic variables were obtained from World?Clim. The Biomod2 framework was used to predict the current and future potential suitable habitats for P. ginseng in Jilin. The spatial pattern changes，centroid shifts，response curves，and niche dynamics，including multivariate environmental similarity surface（MESS） analysis were then quantified.【Result】Highly suitable habitats for P. ginseng are mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains and the adjacent uplands，which is tightly associated with key environmental factors such as isothermality，total precipitation，and precipitation seasonality. Under the current climate condition，the area of highly suitable habitat is 23 400 km2. Under progressively warmer scenarios，however，this area declines markedly to 20 000 km2（under SSP245） and 19 300 km2（under SSP585）.MESS analysis indicates that the environmental similarity is sharply decreased and the environmen?tally unsuitable area is expanded under the extreme scenario. Niche overlap analyses further indicate an increase in habitat fragmentation and a gradual reduction in P. ginseng’s niche stability. Under SSP585 scenario，Schoener’s D index drops to 0.39，indicating that the continuity of suitable habitats for the species is signifi?cantly constrained.【Conclusion】Intensifying climate change is projected to pose substantial challenges to the viability and habitat stability of P. ginseng in Jilin Province. Future conservation should prioritize habitat restora?tion，maintenance of ecological connectivity，and adaptive management to buffer climate risks and safeguard the long-term survival and ecological functions of P. ginseng. |
| Key words: Panax ginseng climate change niche variation species distribution model Jilin Province |
