| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究林木资产经济价值核算方法，解决森林资源资产评估技术中存在的问题，科学、合理、公正地计算林木资产价格，为森林资源资产评估提供技术支撑。【方法】以杉木人工林、马尾松人工林、马尾松天然林、硬阔叶树人工林、天然硬阔叶树林和桉树人工林为研究对象，利用收获现值法和科夫蓄积量生长方程构建一种乔木林可变利率林木价格评估模型，采用实测样地数据经Matlab软件估算模型参数，用剩余标准差(SEE)、总相对误差(TRE)、平均系统误差(MSE)、平均相对误差绝对值(MPSE)、平均预估精度(MPE)等指标评价模型的适用性，在固定利率4%下与重置成本法、收获现值法、市场价倒算法等传统评估方法的计算结果进行比较与分析。【结果】① 建立的6种树种(组)科夫蓄积量生长模型的适用性评价指标SEE和MPSE均小于10%，TRE和MSE均在±10%范围内，MPE均小于3%，表明模型精度较高，可用于森林资源资产的评估。② 乔木林可变利率林木价格评估模型经迭代计算后，得到杉木人工林、马尾松人工林、马尾松天然林、硬阔叶树人工林、天然硬阔叶树林、桉树人工林的利率分别为7.5%，6.6%，5.7%，5.8%，5.3%和7.9%。③ 与传统评估方法相比，采用乔木林可变利率林木价格评估模型计算的6种树种(组)的林木价格均随林分年龄增大而增加，符合林木价格与年龄之间的正常关系。④ 6种树种(组)各龄组采用可变利率模型计算的林木价格均表现为高龄组大于低龄组，而各龄组采用固定利率模型计算的林木价格仅在森林成熟龄较小的杉木和桉树人工林2种林分中未出现倒挂现象，其他树种(组)均出现不合理的倒挂问题。【结论】乔木林可变利率林木价格评估模型解决了林木资产评估过程中各龄组林木因评估方法不同造成的评估结果不衔接问题，实现了与重置成本法、收获现值法和市场价倒算法估价结果的相容。 |
| 关键词: 乔木林 林木资产评估；可变利率；林木价格评估模型；科夫生长方程 |
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| 基金项目:福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J011141)；福建省生态产业绿色技术重点实验室开放课题(WYKF-EIGT2021-4)；福建省林业科技项目（2022FKJ08） |
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| Construction of a forest price evaluation model for arbor forests with variable interest rate |
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HUA Weiping,WU Jianwei,YU Liyao,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study explored new method accounting for economic value of forest assets,solved the problems existing in evaluation of forest resource assets,and calculated the price of forest assets scientifically,reasonably and fairly to provide support for precise evaluation of forest resources assets.【Method】Artificial C. lanceolata,artificial P. massoniana,natural P. massoniana,artificial hard broad-leaved tree,natural hard broad-leaved tree and artificial Eucalyptus were selected to construct a forest price evaluation model with variable interest rate using the harvest present value method and Korf stock growth equation.The measured sample data were used to estimate parameters by MATLAB,and the residual standard deviation (SEE),total relative error (TRE),average systematic error (MSE),mean relative error absolute value (MPSE) and mean prediction accuracy (MPE) were selected to evaluate model applicability.The results from the constructed model with a fixed interest rate of 4% were compared with those from traditional evaluation methods such as replacement cost method,income present value method and market price inversion algorithm.【Result】① The constructed volume growth model for the six tree species (groups) had SEE and MPSE of less than 10%,TRE and MSE of within ±10% and MPE of less than 3%,indicating high model accuracy and suitability for evaluation of forest resources assets.② Through iterative calculation,the interest rates of artificial C. lanceolata,artificial P. massoniana,natural P. massoniana,artificial hard broad leaved tree,natural hard broad-leaved tree and artificial Eucalyptus were 7.5%,6.6%,5.7%,5.8%,5.3% and 7.9%,respectively.③ Compared with traditional evaluation methods,the prices of six tree species (groups) calculated by the constructed model of arbor forest increased with the increase of stand age,which was in line with the normal relationship between forest price and age.④ The forest prices of different age groups calculated by the constructed model showed that the old group had large prices than the young group.The forest prices calculated by the model with fixed interest rate showed unreasonable upside down results except for artificial C. lanceolata and artificial Eucalyptus with less mature ages.【Conclusion】The price evaluation model of arbor forest with variable interest rate solved the problem of inconsistent evaluation results due to different evaluation methods and achieved compatible results with the replacement cost method,harvest present value method and market price inversion algorithm. |
| Key words: arbor forest forest assets appraisal variable interest rate price evaluation model Korf growth equation |
