| 摘要: |
| 【目的】估算河南省气候生产潜力，探讨气候生产潜力的影响因素及其与粮食产量的关系，为充分利用气候资源和粮食增产提供依据。【方法】利用河南省17个气象站点1960-2020年气温和降水量数据，运用Thornthwaite Memorial模型、经验正交函数（EOF）分解和Morlet小波分析等方法估算河南省气候生产潜力，评估气候变化对其的影响，探讨气候生产潜力与粮食产量的关系。【结果】近61年来河南省气候生产潜力年平均为1 209.94 g/m2，并以每10年5.14 g/m2的倾向率呈微弱上升趋势；在空间分布上，河南省气候生产潜力由东南向西北递减；EOF分析表明，河南省气候生产潜力空间分布主要分为2种类型，EOF1反映了河南省气候生产潜力变化趋势的整体一致性，EOF2反映河南省气候生产潜力呈东南 西北相反变化特征；Morlet小波分析表明，近61年河南省气候生产潜力存在28年左右的主周期变化；“暖湿化”气候有利于河南省气候生产潜力的提高，在未来全省气候显著变暖背景下，气候生产潜力的大小将依赖于降水量变化；1978-2019年河南省粮食产量呈显著上升趋势，气候资源利用率逐渐提高，21世纪10年代平均气候资源利用率已达47.63%。【结论】河南省粮食产量及气候资源利用率逐步提高，未来仍有较大提升空间。 |
| 关键词: 气候生产潜力 Thornthwaite Memorial模型 Morlet小波分析 EOF分析 河南省 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41602366)；河南省高等学校青年骨干教师项目(2020GGJS188)；河南省高等学校重点科研项目(20A170001，21A170004)；河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2021-ZDJH 016) |
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| Estimation of climatic potential productivity and its spatiotemporal variations in Henan over the past 61 years |
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ZHANG Zhigao,YIN Jiyuan,GUO Chaofan,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study estimated the climatic potential productivity in Henan and discussed the influencing factors of climate potential productivity and its relationship with grain yield to provide basis for fully use of climatic resources and increase of grain yield.【Method】Based on temperature and precipitation data at 17 meteorological stations in Henan from 1960 to 2020,the climatic potential productivity was estimated by using Thornthwaite Memorial model,empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and Morlet wavelet analysis.The factors influencing climatic potential productivity were evaluated and the relationship between climatic potential productivity and grain yield was discussed.【Result】The average climatic potential productivity in Henan was 1 209.94 g/m2 each year with a weak increasing rate of 5.14 g/m2 every 10 years in recent 61 years.In terms of spatial distribution,the climatic potential productivity in Henan decreased from southeast to northwest.EOF analysis showed that the spatial distribution of climatic potential productivity was mainly divided into two types.EOF1 reflected the overall consistency of the changing trend of climatic potential productivity in Henan,and EOF2 reflected the opposite changing characteristics of climatic potential productivity from southeast to northwest.Morlet wavelet analysis showed that the climatic potential productivity had a main changing cycle of 28 years.Warm and humid climate was conducive to the improvement of climatic potential productivity in Henan.Under the background of significant climate warming in the future,the climatic potential productivity in Henan would depend on the change of precipitation.From 1978 to 2019,the grain yield in Henan showed a significant upward trend,and the utilization rate of climate resources gradually increased.In the first decade of the 21st century,the average climate utilization rate had reached 47.63%.【Conclusion】The grain yield and utilization rate of climate resources in Henan were gradually improved,while there was still much space for improvement in the future. |
| Key words: climatic potential productivity Thornthwaite Memorial model Morlet wavelet analysis EOF analysis Henan |
