| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析黄河流域现有的土地利用数据，揭示黄河流域未来30年土地利用时空格局的演变趋势。【方法】基于黄河流域1980，1990，2000，2010和2015年5期土地利用数据，采用元胞自动机-马尔可夫模型（CA-Markov）对2000和2010年的土地利用格局进行模拟，在满足精度要求的基础上，对2020，2030，2040和2050年的土地利用变化情景进行预测，并借助GIS空间分析功能，剖析黄河流域2020－2050年的土地利用时空格局演变趋势。【结果】基于CA-Markov模型的黄河流域2000和2010年土地利用模拟误差均小于10%，Kappa指数高达0.872 8和0.897 0，证实了CA-Markov模型在黄河流域土地利用模拟上的可行性及精度的可靠性；未来30年间，黄河流域主要土地利用类型为耕地、林地和草地；耕地和草地将减少约10%，林地将增加约5%，建设用地将增加约150%，且主要集中于宁蒙河段以及中下游地区。【结论】CA-Markov模型可较好地模拟预测黄河流域土地利用的时空演变格局，模拟结果可为黄河流域未来土地利用规划和管理及生态修复提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 黄河流域 土地利用 模拟预测 CA-Markov模型 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900)；国家自然科学基金项目(51679187,51679189)；四川省科技计划项目(2018JY0223)；河北省青年基金项目(E2019402432) |
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| Land use simulation and prediction in the Yellow River Basin based on CA-Markov model |
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LI Yunyun,CHANG Jianxia,WANG Yimin,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study analyzed existing land use data in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and revealed the spatial and temporal evolution trend of land use in the next 30 years.【Method】The land use maps in 1980,1990,2000,2010 and 2015 were used,and the land use patterns in 2000 and 2010 were simulated using the cellular automata Markov (CA-Markov) model.On the basis of meeting accuracy requirements,the land use change scenarios in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 were predicted,and the spatial temporal pattern evolution trend of the YRB in 2020-2050 was analyzed with the help of GIS spatial analysis function.【Result】The errors in simulation of land use in 2000 and 2010 based on the CA-Markov model were both less than 10% and the Kappa indexes were as high as 0.872 8 and 0.897 0,indicating feasibility and high accuracy of the model in simulation and prediction of land use in the YRB.In the next 30 years,main land use types of the YRB would be farmland,woodland and grassland.Farmland and grassland would reduce by 10%,while woodland would increase by 5%.Urban construction would develop rapidly with an area increase of 150%,mainly concentrated in the Ningmeng reach and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.【Conclusion】The CA-Markov model well simulated and predicted the spatial-temporal evolution of land use pattern in the YRB,and the simulation results would provide basis for future land use planning and management as well as ecological restoration in the YRB. |
| Key words: Yellow River Basin land use simulation and prediction CA-Markov model |
