| 摘要: |
| 【目的】量化径流不确定性对水库发电效益产生的风险,为水库风险调度和风险管理提供依据。【方法】以西江流域红水河段的龙滩水库为研究对象，建立并求解水库综合发电风险模型，揭示水库综合发电风险在不同年径流量及年内分配下的变化规律，量化来水不确定性对水库发电风险的影响，验证综合发电风险较单一发电风险指标的合理性和优越性。【结果】随着年来水总量的减少，水库综合发电风险呈上升趋势，以枯水年不同来水方案下产生的综合发电风险阈值最大，为0.26～0.99；来水在汛期和非汛期的不同分配对综合发电风险影响最为显著的是枯水年；年发电风险率、发电风险损失、发电连续破坏风险3种单一发电风险指标中，对综合发电风险影响最为显著的是年发电风险率指标；将历史径流过程作为若干来水方案，采用灰色综合和TOPSIS综合评价法进行定量评价，分别推荐2008年、1982年和1972年的来水情况为丰、平、枯水年的最优方案，对应得分分别为1.00，1.00和0.98。【结论】综合发电风险能够全面、直观地反映来水情况对水库发电效益的影响，较传统的单一发电风险指标更具合理性和优越性。 |
| 关键词: 径流 水库模拟调度 综合发电风险 发电效益 发电方案评价 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900);国家自然科学基金项目(51879213,51647112,51679187,51679189);中国博士后科学基金项目(2017M623332XB);陕西省博士后科研项目(2017BSHYDZZ53);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2018JQ5145) |
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| Comprehensive power generation risk of Longtan Reservoir considering runoff uncertainty |
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LIU Xia,BAI Tao,WU Yunchen,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study quantified the risk of runoff uncertainty on reservoir power generation benefits to provide basis for reservoir risk dispatching and risk management.【Method】The Longtan Reservoir in the Hongshui River section of the Xijiang River Basin was selected and the reservoir comprehensive power generation risk model was established and solved.The variations of the reservoir comprehensive power generation risk under different annual runoffs and annual distributions were revealed and the uncertainty of incoming water was quantified.The rationality and superiority of integrated power generation risk were compared to single power generation risk indicators.【Result】With the decrease of total water volume in the year,the comprehensive power generation risk of the reservoir was increasing.The threshold of comprehensive power generation risk generated under different water supply schemes in low water years was the largest with the range of 0.26 to 0.99.The most significant impact of the different allocations of incoming water in the flood season and non-flood season on the comprehensive power generation risk was in dry years.Among three single power generation risk indicators of annual power generation risk rate,power generation risk loss and continuous power generation risk,the annual power generation risk rate was the most significant indicator.Using the historical runoff process as different incoming water solutions,the gray integration and the TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method were used for quantitative evaluation.The optimal water supply conditions for 2008,1982 and 1972 were recommended for high, normal and low years with corresponding scores of 1.00,1.00 and 0.98,respectively.【Conclusion】The comprehensive power generation risk can comprehensively and intuitively reflect the impact of incoming water situation on power generation efficiency,which is more reasonable than single power generation risk indexes. |
| Key words: runoff reservoir simulation scheduling integrated power generation risk power generation benefit power generation scheme evaluation |
