| 摘要: |
| 【目的】从资源、社会、经济、效率多角度构建水资源配置方案综合评价模型，为水资源最佳配置方案的遴选提供依据。【方法】在传统仅以水质、水量作为自然资源评价指标的基础上，综合考虑量、质、域、流4个维度，从资源、社会、经济、效率多角度构建水资源配置方案评价指标体系，采用博弈论将层次分析法和CRITIC法综合赋权确定指标权重，同时耦合DS证据理论，建立水资源配置方案综合评价模型,并以黄河流域水资源配置为例，分别对2015年及2020，2030年共9种配置方案进行评价和比较。【结果】利用所建立的水资源配置方案综合评价模型，对黄河流域水资源配置方案的评价表明，黄河流域2020年以同时考虑调水12.63亿m3和节水67.90亿m3的方案E的综合评价结果最优，2030年则以同时考虑调水97.63亿m3和强化节水86.70亿m3的方案I的综合评价效果最优。通过对比自然、社会、经济以及效率准则的评价方案可知，黄河流域节水措施的实施提高了经济效益，同时考虑节水和调水有利于当地水资源的协调发展，能有效提高社会效益。【结论】博弈论与DS证据理论耦合，克服了以往水资源评价指标赋权的片面性和主观随意性，可以实现多源评价指标信息融合，使得评价结果更为客观合理，为水资源配置方案评价提供了新思路。 |
| 关键词: 水资源配置评价 博弈论 DS证据理论 黄河流域 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0401306） |
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| Evaluation of water resource allocation scheme based on game theory and DS evidence theory in the Yellow River Basin |
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ZHANG Shulin,SU Xiaoling
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| Abstract: |
| 【Object】Comprehensive evaluation model of water resource allocation scheme was built based on the perspective of resource,society,economy,efficiency to provide basis for selection of best water resource allocation.【Method】Different from the traditional use of water quality and water quantity as natural resource evaluation indexes,four dimensions of quantity-quality-aquatorium-flow were considered,and the evaluation index system of water resource allocation schemes was established from the perspectives of resources,society,economy and efficiency.Using game theory to combine AHP and CRITIC to calculate weight of indicators and couplying DS evidence theory,the comprehensive evaluation model of water resource was established.Taking the water resource allocation of the Yellow River Basin as an example,the nine water resource schemes in 2015,2020 and 2030 were then evaluated.【Result】 The evaluation of water resource allocation scheme in the Yellow River Basin indicated that the best scheme E in 2020 considered water diversion of 12.63×108 m3 and water saving of 67.90×108 m3.The scheme I considering water diversion of 97.63×108 m3 and water saving of 86.70×108 m3 was the best in 2030.By comparing the evaluation schemes of resource,social,economic and efficiency,the water saving measure can improve economic benefits,the measure considering both water saving and water diversion was conducive to the coordinated development of water resources,and enhance the social benefit effectively.【Conclusion】The combination of game theory and DS evidence theory can overcome the one sidedness and subjective randomness in the weights of water resource evaluation indexes.The results were objective and reasonable, and the paper would provide a new way for the evaluation of water resource allocation. |
| Key words: evaluation of water resource allocation game theory DS evidence theory Yellow River Basin |
