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作物生长期低温指数演变及对作物产量的影响
姜丽霞1,2,3, 任桂林4, 李秀芬,等1,2,3
1.黑龙江省气象科学研究所;2.中国气象局 东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室;3.黑龙江省气象院士工作站;4.黑龙江省气象局
摘要:
【目的】分析1971-2014年黑龙江省作物生长期基于最低气温的低温指数(cold day index,CDI)演变及对作物产量的影响,为揭示作物生长期低温冷害机理、甄别关键致灾因子等提供技术支撑。【方法】利用黑龙江省80个气象观测站1971-2014年气象资料和38个农业气象观测站玉米和水稻单产资料,参考已有研究成果和公认的农业气象指标,构建作物生长期内(05-21-09-30)CDI的计算方法,采用数理统计法研究CDI的变化趋势和周期变化,并分析其与作物产量的相关关系。【结果】(1) 1971-2014年,作物生长期内研究区平均CDI呈明显下降趋势,下降速度为1.5 d/10年。20世纪70年代为低温事件高发期,80-90年代相对稳定,21世纪以来平原区CDI持续减少,而山区变化或呈回升趋势。(2)研究期内,研究区CDI的空间分布呈北多南少、山区多平原少的趋势,CDI由北向南、由山区向平原逐渐下降。CDI的气候变率在不同区域存在差异,呈现西高东低特征。(3)在作物生长期内,研究区89%站点的CDI与玉米、水稻单产具有显著或极显著的负相关关系,表明低温对作物产量的影响为负效应。不同区域CDI引起作物产量的下降幅度不同,CDI每增加1 d,产量下降92.9~695.5 kg/hm2。【结论】CDI对作物生长和产量形成具有显著负效应,其对松嫩平原东部、三江平原和牡丹江半山区玉米、水稻影响较大,且对水稻产量的影响重于玉米。
关键词:  低温指数  高寒区域  最低气温  作物产量  作物生长期  黑龙江
DOI:
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基金项目:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金重点项目(2016SYIAEZD1);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201410);国家自然科学基金项目 (31671575)
Evolution of the cold day index in crop growth period and its effect on crop yield in Heilongjiang during 1971 to 2014
JIANG Lixia,REN Guilin,Li Xiufen,et al
Abstract:
【Objective】Based on the minimum temperature,evolution characteristics of cold day index (CDI) and its influence on yield were analyzed to provide support for revealing chilling damage mechanism and identifying hazardous factors.【Method】Based on meteorological data from 80 stations,maize and rice yield data from 38 stations in Heilongjiang, and recognized agro meteorological indexes,this paper established the calculation method of cold day index (CDI) in the crop growth period (from May 21 to September 30).Statistics methods were also used to investigate the trends and cycles of CDI,and the correlation between CDI and crop yield.【Result】Days of average CDI decreased significantly in the crop growth period in the study area from 1971 to 2014 with the rate of 1.5 d/10 a.The frequency of consecutive low temperature events was very high in 1970s,and it was stable from 1980s to 1990s.In the 21st century,it continued to reduce in the plain,but it had no change or showed rising trend in the mountains.During the study period,days of CDI in north was more than that in south areas from 1971 to 2014,and days of CDI in the mountains was more than that in the plain regions.Days of CDI gradually declined from north to south and from mountains to plain regions.The climate variability of CDI was different in different climate regions,with higher values in west and lower values in east.In the crop growth period,correlation between CDI and maize or rice yield was significant in the study area at 89% stations.Increasing days of CDI was not favorable to crop yield.The decrease of crop yield was different in different regions because of CDI.The yield decreased by 92.9-695.5 kg/hm2 when CDI increased by one day.【Conclusion】Cold day index had significant negative effects on crop growth and yield,and the yield of maize and rice declined seriously because of CDI in East Songnen Plain,Sanjiang Plain and Mudanjiang Mid levels District.The influence on rice was larger than on maize.
Key words:  cold day index  chilly area  the minimum temperature  maize and rice yield  crop growth period  Heilongjiang