引用本文:
【打印本页】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器  关闭
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 1799次   下载 1343 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
雅氏落叶松尺蠖在蒙古高原适生区的分布
黄晓君1,2,3, 颉耀文1, 包玉海,等2,4
1.兰州大学 资源环境学院;2.内蒙古师范大学 地理科学学院;3.内蒙古师范大学 自然灾害防治研究所;4.内蒙古自治区遥感与地理信息系统重点实验室
摘要:
【目的】为防控蒙古国雅氏落叶松尺蠖(Erannis jacobsoni Djak)扩散,预测该虫在蒙古高原的潜在适生区分布。【方法】选取影响雅氏落叶松尺蠖适生性的6个气象指标,基于害虫分布点和寄主分布数据,利用Maxent模型和气候相似性分析方法,结合GIS空间分析方法预测害虫适生区,并将这2种方法相结合预测害虫适生区细化分布。利用Kappa系数对3种方法的预测精度进行评定。【结果】Maxent模型、气候相似性分析法以及2种方法综合预测的适生区总面积分别为9.11,10.34和7.56 万km2;三者预测的适生区总体分布基本一致,包括我国内蒙古呼伦贝尔、兴安盟及锡林郭勒和蒙古国库苏古尔、东方、色楞格、布尔干、扎布汗、肯特、后杭爱、中央、鄂尔浑、乌兰巴托及前杭爱等地区,其中极高和高适生区主要分布在蒙古国布尔干、后杭爱及库苏古尔;三者预测的Kappa系数分别为0.778,0.733和0.813,表明2种方法综合预测精度优于Maxent模型和气候相似性分析法。【结论】雅氏落叶松尺蠖在蒙古高原的适生区分布较广,应趁早采取防范措施保障蒙古高原森林生态系统安全;2种方法综合预测精度较高。
关键词:  雅氏落叶松尺蠖  适生区预测  GIS技术  Maxent生态位模型  气候相似性
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(61631011,41471163);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(lzujbky-2016-242);内蒙古科技计划项目“中蒙俄跨境灾害监测预警与多语言信息共享研究”
Suitable distribution areas of Jas’s larch inchworm in Mongolia Plateau
HUANG Xiaojun,XIE Yaowen,BAO Yuhai,et al
Abstract:
【Objective】The potential suitable distribution area of Jas’s larch inchworm in Mongolian Plateau was predicted to prevent the expansion.【Method】Based on the distribution sites of pest and host distributed data,Maxent ecological niche model and climate similarity analysis were used in combination with GIS to predict suitable areas with 6 meteorological factors.The two methods were also combined to get a more detailed suitable distribution area.The prediction accuracy of the three methods was evaluated using the Kappa coefficient.【Result】The predicted total suitable areas by Maxent model,climate similarity analysis and combined method were 9.11×104,10.34×104 and 7.56×104 km2,respectively.The predicted distribution of suitable area was basically the same,including Hulun Buir,Hinggan League and Xilin Gol of Inner Mongolia,as well as Khovsgol,Dornod,Selenge,Bulgan,Zavhan,Kentiy,Arhangay,Tov,Orhon,Ulaanbaatar and Ovorkhangay in Mongolia,of which the extremely high and high suitable areas were mainly distributed in Bulgan,Arhangay and Khovsgol.The Kappa coefficients of the three prediction methods were 0.778,0.733 and 0.813,respectively.The combined method was the best.【Conclusion】The Jas’s larch inchworm was widely distributed in Mongolian Plateau,and measures should be taken as early as possible to ensure the safety of forest ecosystem.The comprehensive method had high precision.
Key words:  Erannis jacobsoni Djak  suitable area prediction  GIS technology  Maxent ecological niche model  climate similarity