| 摘要: |
| 【目的】根据小麦蚜虫种群动态变化和气候因素的关系，建立小麦蚜虫种群动态的突变模型，以期为蚜虫的防治提供参考。【方法】假设研究区域不变，小麦的品种、天敌状况、农民施肥、喷洒农药年际变化变化很小时，将气候因素加以细化，以温度、相对湿度和作物生长状况为控制变量，在广义logistic模型的基础上建立蚜虫种群动态变化的燕尾突变模型，并对该模型进行了检验。【结果】构建了受温度、相对湿度、作物生长状况3种因素作用的小麦蚜虫种群动态模型，并在此基础上构建了燕尾突变模型。利用燕尾突变模型预测了蚜虫种群动态在气候因素影响下突然爆发的可能情况：当蚜虫种群动态处于分歧点集中的Ⅴ区，且控制变量有向Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ 4个区域发生变化趋势时，蚜虫种群系统将会产生突变；蚜虫种群动态处于分歧点集的Ⅱ区，且控制变量从Ⅱ区变到Ⅰ、Ⅲ、Ⅴ区时，系统的稳定性不会引起改变；当蚜虫种群动态处于分歧点集的Ⅰ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ区，且控制变量变化到Ⅴ区时，系统的稳定性也不会产生改变。验证结果表明，燕尾突变模型可以预测蚜虫种群生长过程中的突变行为。【结论】构建的燕尾突变模型可以较好地预测小麦蚜虫种群动态的突然变化。 |
| 关键词: 小麦蚜虫 种群动态 燕尾突变模型 广义logistic模型 分歧点集 |
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| 基金项目:高校博士点基金项目“紫外线胁迫下麦长管蚜抗氧化酶分子生态及微进化研究”（20130204110004） |
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| Catastrophe model for pest population dynamics under meteorological influence |
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ZHANG Pingping,FENG Luzhi,LI Yuan,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】According to the relationship of aphid population dynamics and meteorological factors,a catastrophe model of population dynamics was established to provide reference for aphid control.【Method】This article assumed that the study area was constant,while wheat varieties,natural conditions,and fertilization,and pesticides use basically remained unchanged.Then meteorological factors were detailed and temperature, humidity and growing conditions were used as control variables to establish the swallowtail catastrophe model of aphid population dynamics based on generalized logistic model.【Result】This paper constructed a population dynamic model considering temperature,relative humidity and crop growth,and established a swallowtail catastrophe model.The model was then used to predicted sudden outbreak of aphid.When aphids population dynamics were in bifurcation Ⅴ area and had the potential to change to Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,and Ⅳ,aphids population system would produce mutation.When the control variables changed from Ⅱ area to Ⅰ,Ⅲ,and Ⅴ,the stability of the system would not change.When the control variables changed from Ⅰ,Ⅲ and Ⅳ to Ⅴ,the stability of the system would not change either.The mutant model can predict the mutation behavior of aphid population during growth.【Conclusion】The established swallowtail catastrophe model can predict the abrupt change of aphid population dynamics. |
| Key words: wheat aphids population dynamic swallowtail catastrophe model generalized logistic equation bifurcation set |
