| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探索美国白蛾在四川省的潜在分布区域、面积及风险评估，为尽早建立美国白蛾防控体系和应急预案提供依据。【方法】基于MaxEnt模型，结合我国105个美国白蛾已发生区环境变量，筛选出9个环境变量因子，首先对该虫在中国的适生区进行了分布预测，再将美国白蛾在全国的分布预测结果导入ArcGis中，按1∶400万尺度勾勒出四川省行政区划面要素，并计算美国白蛾在四川省的分布范围和分布面积。在此基础上，根据传统风险评价指标体系，评估了美国白蛾入侵四川省的风险。【结果】美国白蛾在我国沿渤海湾地区、胶州半岛等东部沿海省份是发生的重灾区，并向西、向南伸入内陆省份，预测结果与已知发生区域吻合并展示出明显扩散趋势。四川省美国白蛾潜在发生面积11.52万km2，占全省总面积的23.85%，除攀枝花市、甘孜藏族自治州、阿坝藏族羌族自治州、凉山彝族自治州4个市（州）外，四川省其余各市几乎都是美国白蛾适生区，其中以成都市最为适宜美国白蛾生存，美国白蛾在四川省的风险评估值为1.80。【结论】美国白蛾在四川省为中等危险性有害生物,四川盆地除川西地区外，其余地区均为其适生区，需要提前做好该虫的预警分析。 |
| 关键词: 美国白蛾 MaxEnt模型 适生性分析 风险评估 |
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| 基金项目:国家“十三五”重点研发项目（2017YFD0600103）；陕西省农业科技创新与攻关项目（2014NY124） |
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| Adaptability analysis and risk assessment of Hyphantria cunea in Sichuan |
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LI Tao,LI Zehua,YU Zhongdong,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The potential distribution areas,area and risk status of Hyphantria cunea in Sichuan were predicted in this study to provide basis for the effective managements under emergence.【Method】Based on the MaxEnt ecological model,nine environmental factors were picked out according to 105 occurred loci of Hyphantria cunea in China.Then,the adaptability of Hyphantria cunea within China was predicted.The national distribution result was also imported into ArcGis to fill in the map of Sichuan at the scale of 1∶4 million and calculate the distributed prefectures and total area.Risk evaluation was then carried out according to the evaluated indexes system.【Result】Regions around the Bohai Gulf,the Kiaochow Bay and the east coastal areas were heavy disaster areas of Hyphantria cunea.Coincided with the previous reports,Hyphantria cunea showed a significant trend of dispersing into inland areas,both from east to west and from north to south.The potential area of Hyphantria cunea in Sichuan was 11.52×104 km2,accounting for 23.85% of Sichuan total calculated area.Most prefectures in Sichuan were suitable for Hyphantria cunea,except Ganzi,Liangshan,Aba,and Panzhihua.Chengdu was the most suitable region.The risk value was 1.80.【Conclusion】Hyphantria cunea was a putative middle dangerous insect,and can distribute in most regions except western prefectures of Sichuan.An early warm system should be established in advance. |
| Key words: Hyphantria cunea MaxEnt ecological model adaptability analysis risk assessment |
