| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预估未来黄土高原丘陵区红枣种植气候资源与适生区空间分布的变化，为气候变化对陕晋黄河沿岸红枣生产的影响和产业可持续发展提供科学依据。【方法】基于GIS技术，利用RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放气候情景下气候变化预估数据，对未来35年（2016-2050年）黄土高原丘陵区红枣种植气候资源和适生区空间分布的变化进行预估，并与基准期（1985-2014年）进行对照分析。【结果】与基准期相比，预计未来黄土高原红枣产区增温明显，年平均气温升高1 ℃左右；年平均降水量和红枣脆熟 采收期降水量均有所增加，大部分地区增幅为100 mm和20 mm左右；红枣花期降水量除南部地区增加较明显外，大部地区为持平略增；黄土高原丘陵区红枣气候适宜种植区面积明显减少，次适宜区面积增加，其中南部区域可能变为气候不适宜区。【结论】陕晋黄河沿岸北部适宜区可根据地形特点，充分挖掘气候资源潜力，适当扩大适应本地发展的制干红枣栽植面积；中部黄河两岸次适宜区应及时进行抗裂果品种改良，采取提前或推迟枣果成熟期、枣果套袋等措施减轻灾害性天气的影响与危害；南部次适宜区应及时进行产业结构调整，促进地方特色农业产业可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 红枣 气候变化 适生区 GIS 黄土高原丘陵区 |
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| 基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201319)；陕西省气象局创新基金项目(2015M-15) |
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| Potential impacts of climate change on suitable area of dried jujube in hilly area of the Loess Plateau |
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LIANG Yi,ZHANG Yong,WANG Jinghong,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The study estimated the spatial distribution of future changes in climatic resource and suitable area for dried jujube in hilly area of the Loess Plateau to provide scientific basis for sustainable development of jujube industry along the Yellow River in Shaanxi and Shanxi.【Method】Using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios data,the spatial distribution of jujube planting climate resource and suitable area for the next 35 years (2016-2050) in hilly area of the Loess Plateau was estimated based on GIS and the results were compared with the baseline（1985-2014）.【Result】Compared with the baseline period,the projection showed 1 ℃ increase in annual average temperature.The annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during ripening-harvesting period would increase with rates of 100 mm and 20 mm,respectively.The precipitation in the blossom period in most areas remained unchanged or slightly increased except for the southern region,where it would increase significantly.The area of suitable region for dried jujube plant would decrease,while the area of sub-suitable region would increase.The southern area may become unsuitable for jujube.【Conclusion】The northern suitable region along the Yellow River in Shaanxi and Shanxi may expand the planting area appropriately according to the topographic features.The central sub suitable region should improve the planting crack varieties,advance or postpone the fruit maturation period,and take bagging measures to reduce the influence and harm of disasters.The southern sub-suitable areas should timely adjust the industrial structure to promote the agricultural sustainable development based on local characteristics. |
| Key words: dried jujube climate change suitable area GIS hilly area of the Loess Plateau |
