| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预测葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的潜在分布范围，为进一步防止其扩散蔓延提供科学依据。【方法】采用Maxent生态位模型和地理信息系统（ArcGIS）并结合影响葡萄根瘤蚜生长发育的环境因子，对葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的潜在适生范围进行了预测。【结果】葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的高适生区主要集中在辽宁大部、河北东南部、山东、河南东部、江苏、浙江北部、江西局部、安徽大部、湖北中部、湖南中部、陕西关中及陕南、重庆、四川东部、贵州北部；通过ROC曲线验证，该模型的训练集和测试集的AUC值分别为0.982和0.962（非常接近1），表明预测获得了较好的结果；年平均气温、最热月份最高温度、最冷月份最低温度、最暖季度平均温度、最冷季度平均温度、年降雨量、最湿月份降雨量、最湿季度降雨量和最冷季度降雨量对葡萄根瘤蚜的潜在分布影响较大。【结论】葡萄根瘤蚜在我国适生范围广泛，加强未被葡萄根瘤蚜侵染地区的监测管理意义重大。 |
| 关键词: 葡萄根瘤蚜 Maxent模型 地理信息系统 适生区 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:陕西省科技厅“果树重大疫情鉴定与防治”项目(K332021230) |
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| Potential geographic distribution of Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch in China based on Maxent model |
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ZHAO Jing-jing,GAO Dan,FENG Ji-nian
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Grape phylloxera,Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch is one of the most serious quarantine insect pests in the world,and it seriously threats the species of grape.The potential geographical distribution of grape phylloxera was predicted to provide scientific basis for preventing its further spread.【Method】Maxent model,geographic information system (ArcGIS) and the environmental factors affecting the growth and development of grape phylloxera were used to predict the potential distribution of grape phylloxera in China.【Result】The most suitable areas for grape phylloxera in China mainly included most of Liaoning,southeast of Hebei,Shandong,east of Henan,most of Jiangsu,north of Zhejiang,few areas of Jiangxi,most of Anhui,middle of Hubei and Hunan,middle and south of Shaanxi,most of Chongqing,east of Sichuan,and north of Guizhou.The ROC curve analysis was used in assessing the accuracy of Maxent model,and AUC values of the training data and the test data were 0.982 and 0.962 (nearly close to 1),indicating the prediction was satisfactory.The potential distribution areas of grape phylloxera were greatly influenced by temperature and precipitation factors including annual mean temperature,max temperature of warmest month,min temperature of coldest month,mean temperature of warmest quarter,mean temperature of coldest quarter,annual precipitation,precipitation of wettest month,precipitation of wettest quarter,and precipitation of coldest quarter.【Conclusion】Due to the wide suitability of Daktulosphaira vitifoliae in China,it is of great significance to enhance the management and monitoring of non infected regions for grape phylloxera. |
| Key words: Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch Maxent model ArcGIS potential geographical distribution |
