| 摘要: |
| 【目的】建立陕西安康烟区烤烟产质量及农艺性状的气候回归预测模型，并剖析生育期气候因子对烤烟产量的重要程度。【方法】以烤烟品种K326为试验材料，于2005-2012年进行田间试验，在打顶后和烘烤后分别测定烤烟农艺性状和经济学性状，收集烤烟生育期气候因子指标。采用相关、逐步回归、通径和决策等分析方法对生育期气候因子与烤烟产质量之间的关系进行分析。【结果】烤烟各生育期年度间气候因子都以降水量变异系数最大，平均温度变异系数最小；降水量变异系数在采烤后期最大，生根期最小；平均温度和日照时数的变异系数都是在生根期最大，旺长期最小。烤烟产量、上中等烟比率和腰叶面积的变异系数较大，株高、节距和留叶数的变异系数较小。生根期平均温度、旺长期平均温度与留叶数、茎围显著或极显著相关，旺长期降水量与上中等烟比率极显著相关。采用逐步回归分析构建了烟叶留叶数、茎围、腰叶面积、产量和上中等烟比率等5个指标的气候回归预测模型，由模型可知烤烟留叶数由生根期平均温度决定；茎围由旺长期降水量和平均温度共同决定；腰叶面积由旺长期降水量和日照时数共同决定；产量由生根期日照时数、旺长期降水量、旺长期平均温度、采烤前期降水量和采烤前期日照时数共同决定；上中等烟比率由旺长期降水量和采烤前期日照时数共同决定。通径和决策分析结果表明，影响烤烟产量的5个生育期气候因子的重要性排序为：旺长期平均温度＞旺长期降水量＞采烤前期降水量＞生根期日照时数＞采烤前期日照时数，其中前3个气象因子以直接作用为主，后2个气象因子以间接作用为主。【结论】构建的烤烟产质量及部分农艺性状的气候因子回归预测模型在生产实践中可对烟区年度总产量及质量进行预测；旺长期的平均温度和降水量是决定烤烟产量的最关键因素。 |
| 关键词: 陕西安康 烤烟 生育期 气候因子 产量 |
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| 基金项目:陕西省气象局重点项目(2012Z-9)；陕西省气象局创新项目(2014M-12)；陕西省优质特色烟叶开发项目（KJ-2011-01） |
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| Influence of climate factors in growth period on yield andquality of flue-cured tobacco in Ankang, Shaanxi |
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LI Xiao-fang,ZHAO Peng,ZHANG Xiang-rong,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study aimed to build climate regression prediction model of yield quality and agronomic traits of tobacco in Ankang,Shaanxi and analyze the importance of climate factors in growth period on yield.【Method】Taking tobacco variety K326 as material,field experiments were carried out during 2005-2012.The agronomic and economic traits were determined after topping and maturity,respectively.Climate factors in growth period were also collected.Then,the relationship between yield index and climate factors in growth period was analyzed by correlation,stepwise regression,path,and decision analysis methods.【Result】Variation coefficient of precipitation was the maximum and variation coefficient of average temperature was the minimumin climate factorsduring flue-cured tobacco growth periods.Variation coefficient of precipitation of late maturity stagewas the maximum and variation coefficient of precipitation of root spreading stagewasthe minimum.Variation coefficient of average temperature of root spreading stagewas the maximum and variation coefficient of average temperature of fast growing period wasthe minimum,sunshine duration hadthe same order as average temperature.Variation coefficients of yield,high middle-quality ratio and area of waist leaves were large,while those of plant height,length of internode and number of leaves were small.The correlation coefficients reached significant or extremely significant between the average temperatures in root spreading stage and fast growing period withnumber of leaves andstem diameter.The correlation coefficients between precipitation in fast growing period and high middle quality ratio wereextremely significant.5 climate regression prediction models for number of leaves,stem diameter,area of waist leaves,yield and high-middle-quality ratiowere constructed by stepwise regression analysis.Number of leaves was decided by the average temperature in root spreading stage.Stem diameter was decided by the precipitation and the average temperature in fast growing period.Area of waist leaves was decided by the precipitation and sunshine hour in fast growing period.Yield was decided by the sunshine hour in root spreading stage,the precipitation and the average temperature in fast growing period,the precipitation and the sunshine hour in prophase maturity stage.High-middle-quality ratio was decided by the precipitation in fast growing period and the sunshine hour in prophase maturity stage.The path analysis and decision analysis showed that the importance of the 5 growth periods climatic factors on effectingflue-cured tobacco yield was in the decreasing order of average temperature of fast growing period＞precipitation of fast growing period＞precipitation of prophase maturity stage＞sunshine duration of root spreading stage＞sunshine duration of prophase maturity stage.The effects of first three meteorological factors were direct while those of thelatter two were indirect.【Conclusion】5 climate regression prediction models of flue-cured tobacco yield quality and agronomic traits were built to predict annual yield and quality of flue-cured tobacco.The hydrothermal conditions infast growing period werethe most critical factor that determined the flue-cured tobacco yield. |
| Key words: AnkangShaanxi flue-cured tobacco growth period climate factor yield |
