| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究山白树在不同时代气候条件下的适生分布区范围和变化规律，推测其过去和未来的适生区分布。【方法】利用山白树在中国的分布点数据和气候因子数据，基于最大熵值模型预测山白树在当代、末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、21世纪50年代和80年代的适生区分布范围和面积。【结果】最大熵值模型对山白树地理分布的分析结果准确可靠；最干季度平均温度、最暖季度降水量、最冷季度平均温度、最干月份降水量、最湿季度平均温度、昼夜温差与年温差比值和最冷季降水量等7个生物气候变量对山白树适生区分布有较大影响。山白树在末次间冰期的适生区总面积为当代的1.65倍，分布范围更靠南方；在末次盛冰期其适生区明显缩小，为当代适生区面积的4.4%，仅分布在巴山地区和汉水上游河谷地带；在21世纪50年代和80年代山白树的适生区面积大幅度增加，总面积分别为当代的19和13倍。【结论】山白树对气候变化敏感，适生区范围变化幅度大；21世纪全球气候变暖有利于山白树的保护。 |
| 关键词: 山白树 适宜生长区 气候变化 最大熵值模型 |
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| 基金项目:陕西省教育厅科研专项（11JK0622）；陕西理工学院2011年博士启动项目 |
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| Distributional change in suitable area of Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.based on Maximum Entropy Model |
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ZHOU Tian-hua,QIAN Zeng-qiang,WANG Yong,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study investigated distribution patterns and changes of suitable habitats for Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsi.under different climate change scenarios to predict the past and future suitable habitats.【Method】Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to predict the suitable habitats of Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsi.in different decades based on the climate change data of current,last interglacial (LIG),last glacial maximum (LGM),2050s and 2080s.【Result】The MaxEnt model was accurate for predicting distribution of Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsi.The suitable habitats of S.henryi were mainly influenced by 7 bioclimatic variables,including mean temperature of driest quarters,precipitation of warmest quarters,mean temperature of coldest quarters,precipitation of driest months,mean temperature of wettest quarters,isothermality and precipitation of coldest quarters.The suitable habitat area of S.henryi in LIG was 1.65 times as large as that in current,but the distribution was more southward.The suitable habitat of S.henryi shrunk greatly in LGM,which was 4.4% of that in current,and the distribution scattered in Mts.Bashan and valleys along upper reach of Hanjiang River.The suitable habitat of S.henryi would expand during 2050s and 2080s,with total area welling to 19 and 13 times as large as that in current,respectively.【Conclusion】S.henryi was sensitive to climate change.The suitable habitats varied greatly under different climate change scenarios,and would expand with the anticipated wormer climate in the 21st century. |
| Key words: Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsi suitable habitat climate change Maximum Entropy Modeling |
