| 摘要: |
| 【目的】将排列熵和小波分析相结合，研究近60年来渭河干流降水序列的突变特征及其影响因素，为渭河流域水资源的利用提供参考。【方法】利用1960－2003年渭河流域干流天水、宝鸡、武功和西安4个站点日降水观测资料，按照不同窗口滑动取样得到不同时间段的降雨数据，利用排列熵算法分别计算其复杂度，分析复杂度序列随时间的演变规律来检测序列的突变点，之后通过小波分析对复杂度序列进行逐级分解，分析不同时间尺度的周期波动在降水突变中的贡献。【结果】渭河流域天水、宝鸡、武功和西安4站降水量在20世纪均发生了2次突变，其中位于上游的天水站突变发生于1971和1994年，位于中下游的宝鸡、武功和西安站突变发生于1980和1994年，呈现出一致性的特征。【结论】准10年时间尺度的周期气候波动是渭河干流降水突变的主要因素。 |
| 关键词: 降水突变 排列熵 小波分析 渭河 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大专项（51190093）；国家自然科学基金项目（51409005，51179148，51179149） |
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| Precipitation mutation of Wei River based on permutation entropy and wavelet analysis |
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SUN Dong-yong,HUANG Qiang,ZHANG Li
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Combined permutation entropy and wavelet analysis method was used to analyze the mutation characteristics and influence factors of main stream precipitation sequence in Wei River,aiming to improve water resources utilization of Wei River.【Method】Daily precipitation observation data at four sites (Tianshui,Baoji,Wugong,and Xi’an) from 1960 to 2003 along main stream of Wei River basin were estimated by different sampling sliding window method and the complexity was calculated using permutation entropy method.The evolution of complexity was analyzed to detect the mutations points,and the contributions of different time scales of cyclical fluctuations to precipitation mutation were obtained by sequential decomposition of wavelet analysis.【Result】Tianshui,Baoji,Wugong and Xi’an stations in Wei River basin all had two mutations, which were in 1971 and 1994 at Tianshui station in upstream,while in 1980 and 1994 at Baoji,Wugong and Xi’an stations in midstream and downstream,showing a consistent feature.【Conclusion】The major factor for precipitation mutation in Wei River was periodic fluctuation of climate with the time scale of quasi 10 years. |
| Key words: precipitation mutation permutation entropy wavelet analysis Wei River |
