| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预测蒙古栎天然林的生长和发展，为其合理经营提供依据。【方法】以蒙古栎天然林为研究对象，基于吉林省汪清林业局195块固定样地的两期复测数据，分析蒙古栎林单木直径平方生长量（以下简称直径生长量）与竞争因子、林木大小因子和立地因子的关系，找出影响林木直径生长量的主要因子，并采用逐步回归的方法，建立蒙古栎林的单木直径生长量模型。【结果】最终确定的蒙古栎林单木直径生长量模型的决定系数R2为0.567，预估精度为98.95％，平均误差为4.792 7E-5 cm2，平均绝对误差为0.651 2 cm2，均方根误差为0.842 1 cm2，相对均方根误差为0.255 2。【结论】影响蒙古栎单木直径生长量的最主要因素是林木期初胸径，其次是竞争因子，立地因子对其影响不大。建立的模型形式简洁、统计可靠，可用于吉林省汪清地区蒙古栎天然林的直径生长预测。 |
| 关键词: 蒙古栎天然林 逐步回归分析法 单木直径生长量模型 |
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| 基金项目:“十二五”科技支撑计划项目“长白山过伐林可持续经营技术研究与示范”（2012BAD22B02） |
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| Growth models for natural Quercus mongolica forests:Ⅰ.Diameter growth model |
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MA Wu,LEI Xiang-dong,XU Guang,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This paper predicted the growth and development of Quercus mongolica forests to provide foundation for the reasonable management.【Method】The data used to develop individual tree diameter growth model for natural Quercus mongolica forests were collected from 195 re measured permanent sample plots in Wangqing Forest Bureau,Jilin Province.Based on analyzing the relationship between diameter square increment of individual tree with competitive factor,tree size factor,and site factor and the major independent variables,individual tree growth model for Quercus mongolica forests was developed using stepwise regression method.【Result】Determination coefficient R2,forecast precision,ME,MAE,RMSE,and ERMSE of the established model were 0.567,98.95%,4.792 7E-5 cm2,0.651 2 cm2,0.842 1 cm2,and 0.255 2,respectivley.【Conclusion】Main variables influencing diameter increment of individual tree included initial diameter at breast height and competition factor,while site factor had minor effect.The model was simple and precise,and could be easily applied for diameter growth projection of single tree in Quercus mongolica forests in Wangqing region of Jilin Province. |
| Key words: natural Quercus mongolica forest composite method individual-tree diameter growth model |
