| 摘要: |
| 【目的】开展气候变化背景下四川省水稻生育期气候资源及生产潜力时空变化趋势的预测,为未来应对气候变化及水稻生产宏观决策提供重要的理论依据。【方法】研究选取区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2和B2气候情景（2071－2100年）及基准气候条件（1961－1990年）气象要素资料，利用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的方法和侯光良的方法，分析了四川水稻生育期内主要气候资源（≥10 ℃积温、日照时数、降水量、参考作物蒸散量和缺水率）和水稻生产潜力（光合、光温和气候生产潜力）的时空变化特征。【结果】与基准年气候条件相比，在A2和B2 2种气候情景下，2071－2100年四川省水稻生育期内≥10 ℃积温、日照时数、参考作物蒸散量和水稻缺水率均呈增加趋势，而降水量在大部地区呈减少趋势，未来四川水稻受干旱灾害的风险可能加大；水稻光合、光温和气候生产潜力呈增加趋势。【结论】未来四川气候资源变化对水稻的增产有利。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 四川省 水稻 生育期 生产潜力 |
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| 基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201422）；中国气象局西南区域重大科研业务项目(2014-8)；四川省气象局科学技术研究开发项目(2014-青年-08)；高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题资助项目（PAEKL-2014-C5）；中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原气象开放基金项目（LPM2013002） |
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| Impacts of future climate change on climatic resources and production potential during growth period of rice in Sichuan Province |
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PANG Yan-mei,CHEN Chao,MA Zhen-feng,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study predicted the temporal and spatial change of climatic resources and production potential during growth period of rice under the background of global climate change in Sichuan Province to provide theoretical support for addressing climate change and making policy for rice production.【Method】Based on the daily data of A2 and B2 climate scenarios (2071-2100) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) from the regional climate model PRECIS,the spatial and temporal change characteristics of climate resources (thermal time ≥10 ℃,total sunshine hours,total precipitation,reference crop evapotranspiration and water deficient ratio) and production potential (photosynthetic potential productivity,photo-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity) during rice growing period in Sichuan were analyzed using the methods recommended by FAO and HOU Guang-liang.【Result】The thermal time ≥10 ℃,total sunshine hours and reference crop evapotranspiration during growth period of rice increased from 2071 to 2100 under A2 and B2 climate scenarios compared with the baseline climate conditions from 1961 to 1990.The precipitation decreased in most regions of Sichuan.The water deficient ratio of rice showed increasing tendency in the future,indicating that the rice drought disaster risk might increase in Sichuan.The photosynthetic potential productivity,climatic potential productivity and photo temperature potential productivity of rice also increased in future.【Conclusion】Future changes in climatic resources would benefit rice yield in Sichuan Province. |
| Key words: climate change Sichuan Province rice growth period potential productive |
