| 摘要: |
| 【目的】针对梯级水库联合调度函数研究的不足，提出一种有效的梯级水库调度函数表征形式，为梯级水库优化运行提供技术支撑。【方法】通过系统研究梯级水库联合调度函数的表征形式，分析调度函数决策变量以及相关因子的影响，应用逐步回归方法对调度函数的相关因子进行拟合及选择，并以乌江流域梯级水库联合调度为例进行了应用。【结果】利用所提出的梯级水库调度函数形式，以乌江流域梯级水库为例，形成以时段平均出库流量为决策变量的梯级水库调度函数，通过长系列资料验证，乌江流域梯级水库多年平均发电量较梯级设计发电量增加了14.43亿kW·h，保证出力提高到2 431.9 MW，有效提高了梯级水库的发电效益。【结论】梯级水库联合调度函数的表征形式能够反映决策变量属性与水库各要素间的联系，且基于逐步回归方法确定的调度函数相关因子可以满足调度需求，能够用于指导梯级水库运行。 |
| 关键词: 梯级水库 联合调度 调度函数 逐步回归方法 |
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| 基金项目:国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目（2013BAC10B02）；国家自然科学基金项目(50709027) |
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| Application of characterization form of joint dispatching function for cascade reservoirs |
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ZHANG Yong-yong,JIANG Jin,WU Cheng-guo,et al
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Aiming at the deficiency of joint dispatching functions for cascade reservoirs,an effective characterization form of joint dispatching function was proposed to improve the optimal operation of cascade reservoirs.【Method】By systematic researching on the characterization form of joint dispatching functions, the decision variables and influences of relevant factors were analyzed,and the stepwise regression method was applied to fit and choose the relevant factors.The proposed characterization form was then applied in Wujiang cascade reservoirs.【Result】Using the proposed characterization form for joint dispatching function of cascade reservoirs,the joint dispatching function of cascade reservoirs using average outflow within the prescribed time as the decision variable were obtained.Taking Wujiang cascade reservoirs as example,long series data validation showed that the average annual energy output increased by 1.443 billion kW·h and guaranteed output increased to 2 431.9 MW.The power generation efficiency of cascade reservoirs was effective improved.【Conclusion】The relation between the decision variables and each element of reservoirs was effectively reflect by the proposed characterization form of joint dispatching functions,and the relevant factors of joint dispatching functions were decided by the stepwise regression method, which could satisfy the dispatching demand and guide the operation of cascade reservoirs. |
| Key words: cascade reservoirs joint operation dispatching function stepwise regression |
