| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析泾河流域21世纪温度变化的趋势，为流域未来气候变化情景的构建及当地农业的可持续发展提供参考依据。【方法】基于泾河流域18个气象站点的日平均温度和日最高、最低温度实测数据，以及美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的再分析资料、英国Hadley气候预测与研究中心的全球气候模型HadCM3在A2和B2情景下模拟的大气环流因子，利用统计降尺度模型SDSM，对泾河流域21世纪3个时期(2020s，2050s，2080s)温度的时空变化进行预测。【结果】A2、B2情景下，泾河流域未来3个时期(2020s，2050s，2080s)的温度变化均表现出明显的上升趋势，且随时间的推移增幅增大。3个时期的温度变化具有季节差异，日平均温度在A2、B2情景下均以夏季变化最为显著（A2：1.2，2.5，4.5 ℃；B2：1.3，2.4，3.2 ℃）；日最高温度在A2情景下以秋季变化最为显著（1.0，2.4，3.8 ℃），B2情景下则以冬季变化最为显著（1.0，2.0，2.9 ℃）；日最低温度在A2情景下以夏季变化最为显著（1.1，2.4，4.4 ℃），B2情景下则以秋季变化最为显著（1.4，2.3，3.3 ℃）。温度变化同时也存在空间差异，以东南-西北方向增幅较高，东南部是高增长的中心，东北部和西南部增幅相对较小。【结论】泾河流域未来3个时期(2020s，2050s，2080 s)的温度有明显上升，并具有一定的时空差异和季节差异。 |
| 关键词: 泾河流域 气候变化 统计降尺度 情景分析 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41101022)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项(QN2009038) |
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| Projecting the potential changes of temperature in the Jinghe watershed using downscaling |
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ZHAO Cha, LI Zhi, LIU Wenzhao
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Northwest A&F University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study aimed to analyze the temperature change trend of Jinghe watershed and improve the construction of the future climate change scenario and sustainable development of local agriculture.【Method】This paper used measured data,NCEP reanalysis data,and atmospheric circulation factors modeled by HadCM3 of 18 meteorological states in the Jinghe watershed during a reference period.The study used statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to project temporal and spatial changes in temperature during the three periods of 21st century (2020s,2050s,2080s)under two SRES scenarios A2 and B2.【Result】The future climate scenarios (2020s,2050s,2080s)for the Jinghe watershed all showed clear upward trends in temperature under the A2 and B2 scenario.Temperature in the watershed increased significantly as time went by.The effect of the A2 and B2 scenarios on temperature varied significantly among seasons.The model predicted that daily mean temperature would increase the most in summer (A2:1.2,2.5,and 4.5 ℃;B2:1.3,2.4,and 3.2 ℃).Daily maximum temperature increased the most in autumn under the A2 scenario (1.0,2.4,and 3.8 ℃) and increased the most in winter under the B2 scenario(1.0,2.0,and 2.9 ℃).The daily minimum temperature increased the most in summer under the A2 scenario (1.1,2.4,and 4.4 ℃),while increased the most in autumn under the B2 scenario (1.4,2.3,and 3.3 ℃).The temperature increases were largest from southeast part of Jinghe watershed to the northwest.The center of temperature increase was in the southeast,whereas the changes in the northeast and the southwest part were relatively small.【Conclusion】The temperature of Jinghe watershed would increase significantly,and these changes would vary with space,time and season in the future. |
| Key words: Jinghe watershed climate change statistical downscaling temperature scenario analysis |
