| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探讨乌鲁木齐市冬小麦不同生长发育阶段气温、降水量和日照时数等气候条件对冬小麦产量形成的影响，进而对近35 a冬小麦生长季气候变化及其对冬小麦产量形成的利弊进行分析，以期为制订适应和应对气候变化、采取趋利避害的冬小麦生产管理和技术措施提供理论依据。【方法】利用1977-2011年新疆乌鲁木齐国家基本气象站逐日气温、降水量和日照时数资料以及乌鲁木齐市冬小麦产量资料，在对近35 a冬小麦生长季平均气温、降水量、日照时数变化趋势和变化特征分析的基础上，使用积分回归和相关分析方法，对冬小麦不同生长发育时段气候条件对产量形成的影响程度进行分析，进而就近35 a气候变化对冬小麦产量影响的利弊进行探讨。【结果】在全球变暖背景下，1977-2011年，乌鲁木齐市冬小麦生长季平均气温以0.606 ℃/10 a的倾向率呈极显著上升趋势，降水量和日照时数分别以4.010 mm/10 a和29.289 h/10 a的倾向率呈不显著的增多趋势，但生长季内不同时段各气候要素的变化及其对冬小麦产量的影响差异较大。【结论】近35 a乌鲁木齐市气候变化对冬小麦生产既有有利的方面，也有不利的影响，但总体来看弊大于利。气候变暖，尤其是春、夏季气温升高对小麦产量产生了较明显的不利影响，降水量略增对提高冬小麦产量有一定积极意义，而日照时数的变化对冬小麦产量无显著影响。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 冬小麦产量 乌鲁木齐市 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:climate change;winter wheat yield;Urumqi region of Xinjiang |
|
| Impact of climate change on winter wheat yield in Urumqi,Xinjiang |
|
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This paper studied the influences of various climatic factors,such as mean temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours at different wheat growth stages to winter wheat yields,and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of climate change on winter wheat yields in past 35 years in Urumqi.The research was helpful to manage wheat plantation and get high production.【Method】This study was based on daily temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in winter wheat growing seasons,and annual winter wheat yield from 1977 to 2011 in Urumqi,Xinjiang.The change trends of mean temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in winter wheat growing seasons in recent 35 years were analyzed using linear regression while the influences of climate conditions in different periods of winter wheat growing seasons on yields were analyzed by the integral regression and correlation analysis.Then the advantages and disadvantages of climate change to winter wheat production were discussed.【Result】With global warming,the mean temperature in winter wheat growing seasons showed significant increasing trend with a rate of 0.606 ℃/10 a,while precipitation and sunshine hours had a non-outstanding increase trend with rates of 4.010 mm/10 a and 29.289 h/10 a,respectively.However,the changes of various climate factors and their impacts on winter wheat yields were different in different periods of winter wheat growing seasons.【Conclusion】In recent 35 years,climate change had both beneficial and adverse effects on winter wheat production.Overall the disadvantages outweighed the advantages.Climate change,especially in spring and summer with rising temperatures causes obvious adverse effects on wheat yields.Increased precipitation had certain positive significance,while sunshine hours change had no obvious effects on wheat yields in Urumqi. |
| Key words: climate change winter wheat yield Urumqi region of Xinjiang |
