| 摘要: |
| 【目的】对紫金山国家森林公园松材线虫危害程度进行时空预测，旨在为森林病虫害防治规划的制定提供科学依据。【方法】以2004-2008年紫金山国家森林公园风景林96个松材线虫病疫点定点观测数据为主要信息源，与松材线虫危害程度相关的6个生态环境因子作为辅助信息源，采用GIS平台及贝叶斯最大熵（BME）方法，对松材线虫危害程度进行了时空分析。【结果】2004-2008年，紫金山国家森林公园松材线虫病各个疫点的林木平均死亡株数从29.96下降到8.17；在空间分布上，2008-2012年，紫金山西部的疫情得到缓解，中部的疫情得到控制，东部依然较为严重，死亡株数多的高疫点之间的连通性降低。2012年松材线虫病疫点林木死亡株数空间聚类结果表明，交通不便、林龄老化、蓄积量大、松林分布面积较广的紫金山深山区域，是松材线虫危害严重、需要重点防治的区域。【结论】借助于GIS平台和BME方法及少量的定点观测数据，可以对松材线虫的危害程度进行时空预测，这为森林重大有害生物入侵的预防与控制工作提供了科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 松材线虫 贝叶斯最大熵 时空分析 紫金山 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(31170592)；教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金项目（2010-1561） |
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| BME-based spatiotemporal analysis of damage to pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Zijin Mountain |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The objective of spatiotemporal prediction of damage from pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus at Zijin Mountain National Forest Park is to provide scientific basis to make plan to protect forest.【Method】The observation data of 96 fixed points of pine wilt disease at scenic forest in Zijin Mountain National Forest Park from 2004 to 2008 were chosen as the main source of information,together with the related auxiliary information of six ecological environmental factors.Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method was applied to do spatiotemporal analysis of damage to pine wood nematode.【Result】From 2004 to 2008,the average number of dead pine trees at observation points of pine wilt disease in Zijin Mountain National Forest Park decreased from 29.96 to 8.17.From 2008 to 2012,the outbreak of pine wood nematode was alleviated in western park and controlled in central park,but still serious in the eastern park,resulting in lower connectivity between points with high number of dead trees.Spatial cluster of dead trees at observation points of pine wilt disease in 2012 indicates that the transportation inconvenient mountain region with large area of old and high volume pine trees will suffer more severely from pine wood nematode and more attention should be paid to prevention and control.【Conclusion】With GIS-based BME method and a small amount of fixed-point observation data,spatiotemporal analysis can be conducted to predict damage from pine wood nematode,which can provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of invasion from major forest pests. |
| Key words: Bursaphelenchus xylophilus Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) spatiotemporal analysis Zijin Mountain |
