| 摘要: |
| 【目的】将V/S分析法引入到洪涝灾害面积序列的长记忆性研究，为洪涝灾害的预测和防治提供参考。【方法】以洞庭湖1949-1998年50年的洪涝灾害面积序列为研究对象，采用V/S分析法计算其Hurst指数，并结合其Mann Kendall趋势分析洪涝灾害面积序列未来的变化趋势。【结果】20世纪70年代以来洞庭湖区的洪灾面积下降趋势明显，90年代以后涝灾面积上升趋势显著，洞庭湖洪涝灾害时间序列V/S分析的Hurst指数均大于0.5，表明洪涝灾害面积序列的变化趋势在未来将持续。【结论】V/S分析是一种有效的趋势预测方法。将V/S分析法与Mann-Kendall相结合的方法能够分析洪涝灾害时间序列未来的变化趋势,是一种有效的未来趋势预测方法。 |
| 关键词: 洪涝灾害 V/S分析 Mann-Kendall Hurst指数 变化趋势预测 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2011CB403306）；水利部公益性行业科研项目专项（201001012，201101043，201101049）；国家科技重大专项（2009ZX0 7212-002-003-004） |
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| Application of the combination of V/S and Mann-Kendall method in flood disaster analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The flood disaster area series of long memory study which includes V/S analysis method can provide reference to flood disaster prediction and prevention.【Method】The V/S analysis method calculates the Hurst exponent of floods time series,and analyzes the change tendency characteristic of flood area series with Mann-Kendall in the future.【Result】The flood area decreased significantly since the 1970s floods in the Dongting Lake area,and the water Logging area was a significant trend of increase after the 1990s.The Hurst exponent of the lake floods t time series is greater than 0.5 by V/S analysis,indicating that the trend of flood and waterlogging disaster series area will continue in the future.【Conclusion】V/S analysis is a robust effective fractal trend forecast approach.The method of the combination of V/S and Mann-Kendall can anaiyze the future trend characteristic of flood area series,it is a robust effective future trend forecast approach. |
| Key words: flood disasters V/S analysis Mann-Kendall Hurst index trend forecast |
