| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预测黑河金盆水库的入库流量过程，为水库汛期的安全运行提供理论依据。【方法】根据陕西省黑河金盆水库流域水文、气象资料，采用Topmodel模型模拟流域的降雨径流过程，以流域内2003-2007年雨量站及水文站的实测数据进行模型率定，以2009年的实测资料对模型进行检验。【结果】Topmodel模型模拟结果显示，模拟期Nash系数平均值为0.78，洪峰预报误差的平均值为-10.3%，峰现时间平均值为-1 h；检验期Nash系数平均值为0.875，洪峰预报误差平均值为11.2%，峰现时间平均值为-1 h。Topmodel模型在黑河金盆水库流域的预报水平为乙等水平。【结论】模型在该流域具有较强的适用性，可以用于金盆水库汛期的入库流量预报，可为水库的安全运行和科学管理提供数据支持。 |
| 关键词: 黑河金盆水库 入库流量预报 Topmodel模型 地形指数 水文模拟 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（50939004） |
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| Applied research of Topmodel in Heihe river Jinpen reservoir catchment |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The study is to forecast the inflow of the Heihe Jinpen reservoir to provide safe operation and management in the flood season.【Method】According to the hydrologic and meteorological data of HeiheJinpen reservoir basin in Shaanxi province,the rainfall-runoff of the watershed is simulated with the Topmodel Model.The model is calibrated with the measured data of the rainfall station and the hydrologic station from 2003 to 2007,and tested with that of the 2009.【Result】The average Nash coefficient is 0.78,the average error of the prediction flood peak -10.3% and the average time between flood peak -1 h when the model is calibrated;And the average Nash coefficient is 0.875,the average error of the prediction flood peak 11.2% and the average time between flood peak -1 h when the model is tested.The comprehensive evaluation grade of the model is at level B.【Conclusion】The model has a strong applicability in this basin and it can be used to predict inflow of the Heihe Jinpen reservoir in flood season,which can provide data for safe operation and scientific management of the reservoir. |
| Key words: Heihe Jinpen reservoir inflow forecast Topmodel topography index hydrological simulation |
