| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 在2个分布组成的混合分布假设下，研究非一致性年径流序列的频率参数计算问题，为陕北及关中地区的水资源利用与管理提供依据。【方法】 假设非一致性年径流序列变异点前后的序列分别服从2个对数正态分布或2个P-Ⅲ分布，全序列服从由这2个分布组成的混合分布，采用水文变异点综合诊断方法，确定非一致性年径流序列的变异点，最后采用模拟退火算法对混合分布序列进行频率参数估计。【结果】 将基于混合分布非一致性年径流序列频率计算的方法应用于陕北及关中地区的实测平均流量序列，理论频率与经验分布拟合较好。【结论】 混合分布模型是进行非一致性年径流序列频率计算的一种有效途径。 |
| 关键词: 水文计算 年径流序列 频率参数计算 混合分布 水文变异 模拟退火算法 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（50579065，50879070）;西北农林科技大学优秀博士论文基金项目 |
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| Calculation of hydrological frequency parameters of inconsistent annual runoff series based on mixed distribution |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 This paper explored the way of frequency calculation of inconsistent annual runoff series from mixed distribution(such as mixed-two lognormal distribution and mixed-two P-Ⅲdistribution)，in order to provide the basis for water resources utilization and management in Shaanbei and Guanzhong regions.【Method】 Based on the assumption that the inconsistent annual runoff series are composed by a mixed-two lognormal distribution and mixed-two P-Ⅲ,comprehensive change-point analysis method was adopted to determine the change-point of inconsistent annual runoff series,and then simulated annealing algorithm was used to estimate parameters of mixed distribution respectively.【Result】 The hydrological frequency parameters calculation method based on mixed distribution is applied in inconsistent annual runoff frequency analysis of Shaanbei and Guanzhong region,theory frequency and experience distribution fitting well.【Conclusion】 Mixed distribution model is an effective way for frequency calculation of inconsistent annual runoff series. |
| Key words: hydrologic calculation annual runoff series calculation of frequency parameter mixed distribution hydrological variation simulated annealing algorithm |
