| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 对2种不同汛期分期方法进行实例应用，并对其相应分期结果进行对比分析与评价。【方法】 在介绍分形理论与模糊集合理论的基础上，以安康水库为例，应用上述2种理论方法对水库进行汛期分期的求解；首次提出了考虑权重因子的均方差评判指标S，并对2种方法的分期结果进行了对比与分析。【结果】 利用分形理论得到安康水库的汛期分期结果为：前汛期05-01-06-20，主汛期1-06-21-07-20，主汛期 2-07-21-08-20，后汛期08-21-10-10；基于模糊集合理论的汛期分期结果为：前汛期 05-01-07-15，主汛期 07-16-08-20，后汛期 08-21-10-31。在设定不同分期段不同权重因子组合下，计算出的S分形值都较S模糊小。【结论】 基于分形理论的汛期分期结果更为具体、准确；而应用模糊集合理论所得到的汛期分期结果虽较为粗糙，但可以依隶属度值为系数进而推求汛期的分期汛限水位。 |
| 关键词: 水库 水库调度 汛期分期 汛限水位 洪水资源利用 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(50709027)；陕西省自然科学基金项目(2006D09) |
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| Division of flood seasonal phases for reservoir and the evaluation method |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Two different division ways of flood seasonal phases were applied and the result was studied comparatively.【Method】 Based on the introduction of the fractal theory and fuzzy set theory in this paper,taking Ankang Reservoir as an example,these two methods of theory were used to calculate the division of flood seasonal phases.The MSE (Mean square deviation) comparative index S considering power factor was firstly put forward,and the different results of two division methods of flood seasonal phases were analyzed.【Result】 Based on the fractal theory,the result of division of flood seasonal phases of Ankang Reservoir showed previous flood seasonal phase was 05-01 to 06-20,main flood seasonal phasel 1-06-21 to 07-20,main flood seasonal phase 2-07-21 to 08-20,latter flood seasonal phase 08-21 to 10-10;Based on fuzzy set theory,the result of division of flood seasonal phases for Ankang Reservoir demonstrated previous flood seasonal phase was 05-01 to 07-15,main flood seasonal phase 07-16 to 08-20,latter flood seasonal phase 08-21 to 10-31.The value of SFractal was samller than the value ofS Fuzzy with different powers in different flood seasonal phases assembly.【Conclusion】 The result was more specific and precise.The result was coarse based on fuzzy set theory,but the flood limited level seasonal can be calculated using the value of membership grade as coefficient. |
| Key words: reservoir reservoir operation division of flood seasonal phase limited water level utilization of flood water resources |
