| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 针对病险水库运行风险的量化问题，进行灰色-随机风险计算的复合不确定性分析方法研究。【方法】 将病险水库运行中的复杂不确定性影响关系，简化处理为仅由灰色和随机不确定性构成，由此建立了病险水库运行风险的灰色-随机风险率计算方法，并通过对功能函数的确定，将灰色-随机风险概率转换成一般随机风险率，最后应用改进一次二阶矩法，实现对病险水库运行风险的复合不确定性分析与计算。【结果】 所求得的风险值为一灰色区间，客观地反映了水库运行风险的不确定性。【结论】 工程实例表明，所提出的复合不确定性分析,能较好地评价病险水库的运行风险。 |
| 关键词: 病险水库 运行风险 复合不确定性 灰色-随机风险概率 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（50779051）；水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目（2007B037）；陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(07JK354)；西安理工大学科学研究基金项目(106-210509) |
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| Analysis on complex uncertainty for the run risk of ill reservoir |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of ill reservoir,a complex uncertainty analysis method of grey-stochastic risk evaluation was put forward.【Method】 By simplifying the complicated uncertainty relationships in the run of ill reservoir to a grey-stochastic complex uncertainty，the evaluation method of grey-stochastic risk probability was set up for ill reservoir risk analysis.According to ascertaining the functional function,the grey stochastic risk probability was transformed into commonly stochastic risk probability.Finally,the amended first-order second-moment method was utilized to calculate the run risk of ill reservoir.【Result】 The risk probability obtained by the grey-stochastic risk evaluation fell in a grey-space,which satisfactorily reflected the uncertainty of reservoir run risk.【Conclusion】 Project instance analysis shows that the complex uncertainty analysis method proposed can satisfactorily evaluate the run risk of ill reservoir. |
| Key words: ill reservoir run risk complex uncertainty grey-randomicity risk probability |
