| 摘要: |
| [目的]考虑人类活动作用下的水资源演变背景,针对黄河以基于供需严重不平衡条件下的缺水配置和输沙要求,计算拟定了以维持河流健康生命、保持干流主要断面最小控制流量为特征描述的4种不同配置方案,即方案1:按流域内各省(区)缺水比例大致相当进行配置;方案2:在方案1的基础上考虑了黄河水资源供需矛盾尖锐的情况,适当减少了入海水量,相应增加了河道外可配置水量;方案3:在方案1的基础上进行了同比例折减;方案4:偏重于考虑目前实际耗用的黄河地表径流量情况,适当考虑了2020年水平年的需求预测,并对这4种方案进行评价.[方法]针对4种配置方案,建立了相对独立可行的指标体系,以流域水资源禀赋为先天条件,以流域水资源开发利用水平为后天基础,运用投影寻踪分类评价模型,将高维数据转换到低维子空间,利用实数编码的加速遗传算法对投影指标函数和模型参数进行了优化,获得了指标体系最佳投影方向即权重和投影值,从而揭示了高维数据的结构特征,并同时运用模糊物元、灰色关联方法和综合集结方法进行了分析.[结果]从水资源合理配置的角度考虑,以第2方案为优.[结论]该模型简单、高效、可行,最大限度地避免了模糊综合评判等方法中对权重的人为干扰. |
| 关键词: 黄河流域 水资源配置 配置方案评价 评价体系方法 |
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| 基金项目:中国气象局成都高原气象所开放实验室基金项目(LPM2007005)；水利部江湖治理与防洪重点实验室开发研究基金项目（R2007－13） |
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| Research on the evaluation for rational allocation of water resources based on healthy life in Yellow River basin |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Having considered the background of evolvement of water resources under human activity,the four scenarioes of water resources rational allocation of the Yellow Rivers were assessed.Its characteristics were described as the allocation in short of water under big imbalance between the demand and supply of water resources,the need sediment transport in order to keep the least control flow of important cross-section of rivers and maintain healthy life of rivers.The four secenarioes were:the first scenario was designed for similar proportion of shortage among each province;based on the first scenario,the second scenario reduced sea-going quantities and at the same time increased water resources volume of river outside according to serious imbalance between water supply and demand in Yellow River basin;the third scenario reduced water resource volume for allocation at the same proportion among each province;the fourth scenario focused on actual consumption of runoff of Yellow River and forecast the water demands of 2020 level year at large.【Method 】 The independent and feasible index system was designed in this research based on the natural endowment of water resources in basin as the inborn term,development and utilization of water resources as the acquired foundation.Through applying the Projection Pursuit Classification(PPC) based on Real-coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm( RAGA),the multi-dimension data were easily changed into low dimension space and its structure could be indicated based on RAGA,then the optimum projection direction as weight matrix and the value of project function could be obtained.PPC based on RAGA as the mean method and the Fuzzy Mater-element,the Grey Correlation Analysis as the assistant method were used respectively and synthetically .【Result】 In consideration of the Yellow River water resources rational allocation,the second scenario was the best.【Conclusion】 The analysis,concise,effective,feasible and creative in practical application,can avoid jamming of weight matrix in the method of fuzzy synthetic judgment. |
| Key words: Yellow River basin water resources allocation evaluation of scenarioes for allocation method of evaluation system |
